RIYADH, April 10: Saudi Arabia should try to avert Iraq’s fragmentation by lobbying against any premature withdrawal of US forces and by pressing Iran to stop meddling, a report by a security adviser to the Saudi government says.
“A civil war may well be inevitable. Such a development would have the gravest implications for the entire region, especially Saudi Arabia, which shares its longest international borders with Iraq,” Nawaf Obaid said in his report on how Saudi Arabia should respond to the situation in Iraq.
The report, released by the US-based Centre for Strategic and International Studies, was based on dozens of interviews with military and intelligence officials in the region, and numerous conversations with Iranian officials, Mr Obaid said.
Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Saud al Faisal said in remarks broadcast by state media on Sunday that the violence in Iraq could only be described as a civil war.
Analysts fear tensions between Sunnis, Shias and Kurds may spill over in Saudi Arabia. Mr Obaid said it was crucial for Saudi Arabia to try to foster a stable and unified Iraq.
“Saudi Arabia has a vested interest in preserving the integrity of Iraq and safeguarding the rights of Sunnis in a country dominated by Shias,” Mr Obaid said.
Riyadh could mitigate the crisis by improving communications with the United States on the extent and strength of the Iraqi resistance and by ‘neutralising Iranian interference’, he said.
FOILING IRAN: Mr Obaid said a premature US withdrawal would ‘precipitate a civil war and an immediate disintegration of the state’. Saudi Arabia should try to use its influence in Washington to prevent this, he said, and should also open talks with Iran.
“Tehran now sees an opportunity to fulfil one of the most cherished aims of the Iranian revolutionary experiment, ‘to export the revolution’. More simply stated, it wants to expand the reach of Shia Islam,” the report said.
“The time has now arrived...to open a dialogue with Tehran and to make it clear that the kingdom is conscious of their covert activities in Iraq.
“The Saudi leadership should unequivocally state that if these activities are not checked, it will be forced to consider a similar overt and covert programme of its own,” Mr Obaid wrote.
He said only talks with Iran’s Ayatollah Ali Khamenei could produce results.
Saudi-Iranian tensions ran high after the 1979 revolution, but relations have been on a more stable footing for several years.—Reuters
