January 30, 2006	Monday	Zilhaj 29, 1426

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LAHORE, Jan 29: The country will enter power deficit regime by the end of the current year and face a shortage of some 1,700mw by the end of next year, if present load-growth trend continues.

According to Wapda’s power projections, present supply would even out the demand by December 2006, and the country would start 2007 on a negative note with regard to its power needs.

The shortages will multiply to some 5,000mw by the year 2010 and to a whooping 8,000mw by 2016, when first major power project is expected to be completed.

As per record, power demand has been increasing by eight per cent for the last few years. The growth is based on two factors: consumer finance by banks and industrial growth.

The consumer financing by banks had made easier the availability of electric gadgets like air conditioners etc, while the industrial load has also registered almost an equal growth. Both these factors are exerting pressure on Wapda’s power generation system, and will outstrip the same by the year-end.

According to estimates, by the year 2016, total power demand in the country would jump to around 21,500mw, against the current supply of over 12,000mw.

Official sources say that during the next few years, the authority will get an additional supply of around 19,500mw — some 450mw from its own system and 1,500mw from the independent power producers.

They say the earliest power generation plant will be commissioned by the end of 2008, and it will take another year for the next two projects to start generation. The Wapda projects are: Alai Khawar (121mw), Duber Khawar (130mw) and Khan Khawar (72mw), with a combined supply of 323mw. Currently, there is only eight per cent progress on these projects.

Other projects include Golen Gol (106mw), which is expected to come online in 2009 and Jinnah Power Project (96mw), which is expected to be completed by 2009. The total power generation in the next five years will be 525mw. The authority is also upgrading its generation plants like Lakhra Power Plan to arrange another 100mw.

“This is a threatening scenario, which can push the country back to load shedding regime,” a former member (power) of Wapda said. The most pathetic part of the current debate on new dams was that their power side had completely been ignored, he lamented. This was in spite of the fact that power realities of the country were worsening as fast as the agricultural ones. No one seemed to be even mentioning that the country would be entering power rationing regime only 12 months down the lane, he said.

He said the combined power generation by the five projects, that the authority hoped to bring in operation in the next five years, would not be able to meet even six months of load growth. They were such small projects that they would not make any difference to Wapda’s power supply, he added. Once the country entered power deficit regime, its industrial and agriculture growth would be affected badly, and the government must project these urgencies along with water worries, he demanded.