ISLAMABAD: Mixed views are being expressed ahead of the crucial third round of the Indo-Pakistan Composite Dialogue process that begins with the foreign secretary-level talks in New Delhi next week.

The pessimistic view is that it will be more of the same, with the two sides merely going through the motions. A less cynical standpoint is that while a major breakthrough is unlikely, the meeting will take forward the peace process with perhaps some more confidence-building measures in the areas of peace and security. Yet another view is that the two nuclear-armed rivals are back to square one — given a volley of terse exchanges between Islamabad and New Delhi in the past few weeks.

However, despite the sullying somewhat of the political atmosphere, there appears to be guarded optimism in official circles regarding the outcome of the talks. It is hoped that the sudden escalation in the war of words will not be allowed to scuttle the peace process.

Pakistan’s focus seems to be on the Kashmir issue. Significantly, the foreign secretaries’ meeting takes place on the heels of a visit by the APHC delegation during which Chairman Mirwaiz Umar Farooq and other Kashmiri leaders discussed with the Pakistani and AJK Kashmiri leadership various options on Kashmir. The APHC delegation openly endorsed President Musharraf’s proposals for demilitarization and self-governance in Kashmir as interim measures towards a final settlement of the dispute.

Among the positive aspects of the ongoing peace process is the fact that it is widely backed by the Kashmiri leadership on both sides of the Line of Control (LoC). The international community, mindful of the consequences of a breakdown of the peace process, is also prodding the two countries to move ahead decisively. In a recent interview to CNN, Mr Elbaradi, head of the UN nuclear watchdog IAEA, warned that that Kashmir was one of the three flashpoints in the world, the other two being North Korea and Palestine. Key world powers including the United States, China and the EU have emphatically endorsed the process. A resolution adopted by the European Parliament on Kashmir on November 17 is particularly significant in this context. While welcoming the peace initiatives by the two governments, including the opening of crossing points on the LoC and the April 2005 ‘cricket diplomacy’ that led to the Musharraf-Manmohan summit in New Delhi, the resolution expresses the hope that such steps will “lead to a political settlement of the Kashmir border question”.

Fully supporting and advocating the idea of demilitarization of Kashmir, the resolution notes: “The European Parliament welcomes the Indian prime minister’s declaration, supported by the president of Pakistan, that the Siachen Glacier in Kashmir should be regarded as a ‘Mountain of Peace’ and as a new symbol on the path to full reconciliation between India and Pakistan on Kashmir, and calls on the EU to support this positive move in order to achieve, as soon as possible, a definitive agreement between the parties, inter alia on redeployment and withdrawal of military forces in the area”.

It applauds the two governments for “recent first steps towards reconciliation, which for the first time included the Kashmiris directly in the process, and very much hopes that this is the beginning of a steady process towards peace; calls therefore on the Indian and Pakistani governments to continue with the process that should, while involving the population concerned, lead to a peaceful settlement of the Kashmir issue.”

Hence the diplomatic pressure on India seems to be increasing for a meaningful engagement with Pakistan and taking steps that would pave the way for a final settlement of the Kashmir dispute. Perhaps this is what has put India on the defensive and prompted its unwarranted remarks on the Balochistan situation and the subsequent hardening of its position on Kashmir. One reading is that India may have done so to ward off this mounting pressure and to blunt domestic criticism of moving ‘too fast’ on Kashmir.

Those representing key foreign policy institutions believe that any major breakthrough on Jammu and Kashhmir will ultimately come only through the back-channel backed by the top political leadership of the two countries. However, this is not to undermine the small but significant measures at the official level that could facilitate it. So far the only noteworthy headway made on the Kashmir front at the bureaucratic level was the October 29, 2005 agreement between the governments of Pakistan and India on the opening of five crossing points on the LoC. The agreement was reached after exhaustive negotiations at joint-secretary level talks in Islamabad.

The forthcoming meeting that will take up key issues of peace and security and Jammu and Kashmir will indicate how far the Indians are actually prepared to go. It will give a fair idea about which way the wind blows on the core issue of Kashmir. More importantly it will allow the Pakistan side to gauge the level of flexibility India is willing to show on this complex issue. One positive development in the context of peace and security is that India and Pakistan are now talking about all aspects, including nuclear and conventional.

On the Kashmir issue Pakistan’s position has been that it will go for a solution that is acceptable to all three sides, India, Pakistan and people of Kashmir. The aspirations of the Kashmiri people remain paramount. Since the resumption of the composite dialogue in 2004 President Musharraf has repeatedly been saying that both sides have to move beyond the stated positions for a durable resolution of the Kashmir dispute. He has underlined “sincerity, flexibility and boldness” as the three most important elements that ought to guide the Pakistan-India peace dialogue.

Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh also at one point stressed that flexibility was needed to resolve political issues. In his first address to the nation after assuming office he made a pledge to “actively pursue” the peace process with Pakistan.

The fact is that while there are no ‘quick fixes’ on Kashmir what is expected are decisive initiatives towards it. Demilitarization could be one of them. While publicly the Indians may have shunned the proposals for demilitarization and self- governance in Kashmir, the fact is that behind the scenes these proposals are being discussed. This was even acknowledged by the Indian national security adviser last month. Given that the status quo is unacceptable to Pakistan and Kashmiris, converting the LoC into a permanent border is out, India calls Kashmir its integral part and Kashmiris do not want a division of Kashmir, the self-governance proposal particularly merits attention. Some believe that within these parameters self-governance may be the only way of untangling the Kashmir knot.