BIRGANJ (Nepal): Four months after Nepal’s King Gyanendra seized power through a bloodless coup, the nation’s beleaguered political parties are finding it increasingly difficult to win public support for their pro-democracy protests.

It is not so much that Nepal’s 26 million people have forgotten democracy or do not crave the political and civil freedoms the parties are demanding, but rather that they want the relative peace and quiet of the last four months to last. As such, they view the parties’ protests as a nuisance.

Take for instance Shital Mahato, a 60-year-old farmer from Pokhariya, a village about 14 kms west of Birganj town in south central Nepal. Until months ago, Mahato regularly got into trouble with local Maoist rebels, who demanded food and shelter from villagers like him.

But now he says the rebels have vanished. “They have all gone underground after the king took power. I don’t feel insecure as before,” he says.

That perception of peace and stability after the monarch’s coup is perhaps the biggest thing the palace has going for it. This has left the parties in the unenviable position of having to wage a pro-democracy battle just when the people’s perception of daily life is changing for the better.

Last week an alliance of parties staged a mock parliament in the capital Kathmandu to press for return of democratic rule. However, public participation was poor, signalling citizens’ continued disenchantment with the parties.

“We do realize that we have a long slog ahead, especially since Maoist activity has declined,” says Janardan Singh Chhettri, a leader of one of the parties. “But eventually we think the people will support us,” he added in an interview.

That looks unlikely in the near future though. Faced with a violent Maoist insurgency that has taken the lives of more than 12,000 people in nine years, the king sacked a party-based government on Feb 1, and began ruling through a handpicked cabinet that he heads.

He imprisoned hundreds of political leaders, activists, students, journalists, and civil society members and severely clamped down on media and other civil freedoms through a draconian emergency measure. Though the emergency was withdrawn on April 29, restrictions remain.

What all this has done is create an impression of security in Nepal’s urban centres that has extended to nearby rural areas, such as Pokhariya. Villagers in nearby Bara district also speak of improved security after the coup.

In the capital Kathmandu such talk is now commonplace. Ironically the Maoists, who are fighting for a republican state, have helped to create this perception.

Since the palace takeover, the insurgents intensified pressure on the state with frequent strikes and blockades. But in recent months, that activity has slackened. Though the Maoists have launched several raids on police and security posts in the past two months, very few have succeeded.

Finally, reports of divisions within the highest ranks have weakened the Maoists’ public image. The inevitable result: an increased sense of security. This growing sense of well-being is what the parties are up against.

“When the parties were in power, Maoist activity was very high,” says a local businessman who declined to give his name. “All the businesses here had to pay protection money to keep the rebels away. They demanded huge sums as donations. But now, we are not being bothered. It’s as if the Maoists have melted away,” he told IPS.

Melting away is perhaps the right term to describe present rebel activity. Sources close to the Maoists say the king’s coup caught them unaware, resulting in confusion among their ranks.

Initial attempts to capitalize on the takeover, by forging links with the mainstream parties, made little headway. As a result, the rebels have adopted a “wait and see” approach as the situation unfolds, giving the royal government time to consolidate its position. One such example is in Pokhariya.

In late 2003, the Maoists burnt down the only police station in the village, forcing the government to abandon the post and withdraw all policemen to Birganj town. That created a security vacuum and gave the rebels control of the village by default.

But in May this year, the government re-established security in Pokhariya, setting up a joint base camp of soldiers and policemen and housing them in the same torched police building. The message: we are back to reclaim the countryside. And it has worked.

“Since the arrival of the base camp, villagers have become more emboldened,” says Mahant Yadav, another farmer. “The security forces have managed to provide security in a 10 km radius around the camp.”

This is not to say that the royal government has been winning the war against the Maoists. Much of Nepal’s countryside still remains under heavy rebel influence.

In the western hills where the rebellion first emerged, the Maoists are in virtual control of half a dozen districts. In the eastern hills and parts of the southern flatlands, called the Terai, the conflict is seesawing.

Knowledgeable security sources say the government simply lacks the capability to win an offensive war against the Maoists. Its forces are mostly dug in defensive positions, protecting the towns and district headquarters.

In military terms the conflict is still a stalemate because neither sides has been able to dislodge its opposition from their traditional strongholds. But in the battle of perceptions at least, the royal government appears to be winning, creating more difficulties for the parties.

“Continued stalemate is favourable to the government since it will give it time to boost its image of being able to provide security,” says Pankaj Tiwari, a pharmaceutical business executive who travels throughout Nepal observing the conflict first-hand.

It is on the strength of such perceptions that King Gyanendra is hoping to pull off his coup. But public perceptions can be fickle, as history has repeatedly shown in Nepal.

The parties, who so lack public support today, were held in high esteem after they toppled a 30-year absolute monarchy in 1990 and replaced it with multi-party democracy. It is not impossible for them to reclaim that lost glory, especially if the royal government commits errors.

“A time will come when the mistakes will have piled up so high that the people will have nowhere to turn but to the parties. That will be the time when they will win support for their pro-democracy platform,” says Arjun Bhandari, a journalist.

But for now at least, the king appears to be on top of his game.—Dawn/The InterPress News Service.