WASHINGTON, May 24: Acquiring newer models of F-16 aircraft can increase Pakistan’s capability to deliver a nuclear weapon during a war but it also reduces the risk of a nuclear conflict in the region, says a congressional report. The latest report by the Congressional Research Service prepared for US lawmakers points out that since March 25, when the US administration announced its decision to resume its sale of F-16s to Pakistan, “some (have) expressed concern that Pakistan could use its new F-16s to deliver nuclear weapons.”

The report, however, notes that the overall potential impact on nuclear deterrence and stability in South Asia of additional Pakistani F-16s appears unclear. First, because the 32 F-16s that Pakistan already fields are believed to be nuclear capable, additional F-16s don’t appear to introduce new capabilities but may expand existing ones. Second, Pakistan also fields nuclear-capable ballistic missiles.

But the report warns that ballistic missiles add instability to the security equation because they are high priority targets, and consequently the pressure to use them early in a conflict can be great. “Thus, if additional nuclear-capable F-16s were to replace existing nuclear-capable ballistic missiles in Pakistan’s arsenal, some may argue that additional F-16s could reduce nuclear instability,” the report by the research arm of the US Congress notes.

The capabilities that new F-16s may offer to Pakistan depend on which variant is exported. But the report also notes that regardless of the variant, these aircraft can be viewed in the context of Pakistan’s conventional military confrontation with India, its nuclear confrontation with that country, and its struggle with terrorists and insurgents.

While comparing the capabilities of the Indian and Pakistani air forces, the CRS points out that India dominated the air when it last clashed with Pakistan in 1971. According to some accounts, Pakistani air strikes were largely ineffective, and air support of ground forces was “non-existent”.

The report says that even now India enjoys a quantitative and qualitative advantage over Pakistan’s air force. It has 21 more fighter squadrons than Pakistan and a larger number of modern aircraft. India operates an aircraft carrier with short-take-off and vertical landing fighters. Unlike Pakistan, India supports its combat aircraft with aerial refuelling, electronic countermeasures, and modern airborne warning and control aircraft. “The sale of F-16s to Pakistan would increase its number of modern combat aircraft but would not bring it close to parity with India. If India were to add F-16s or F/A-18s to its inventory, the disparity in aviation capabilities between the two countries would grow even more,” the report says.

While announcing the proposed sale, the US administration had announced that Pakistan could use F-16s against terrorists and insurgents. The report acknowledged that F-16s could be used in such operations, but says that they are over-designed for these tasks. Less expensive and less sophisticated aircraft such as attack helicopters, unmanned aerial vehicles, and combat search and rescue aircraft would appear to have greater utility in combating insurgents and other non-state actors than supersonic fighter aircraft, the report says.

The report describes F-16 Falcon as a single engine multi-role aircraft with a relatively low cost and high versatility, which “make the F-16 one of the most exported fighter aircraft in the world.” The F-16 was first fielded in 1979 and has been upgraded significantly. The capabilities of the F-16 vary greatly depending on the upgrade or modification fielded. The most modern F-16 flown by the United States is the Block 50/52. The United Arab Emirates flies a more advanced Block 60 variant with improved radar, defenses, and range capabilities.

The F/A-18E/F Super Hornet that the US has offered to India is a dual engine, multi-role aircraft. It is the most modern US combat aircraft currently in full rate production. The Super Hornet reached initial operational capability in 2001. The differences between the E/F and earlier F/A-18 variants (A/B, C/D) are so great, that many consider it to be a new aircraft rather than an upgrade of an existing model. The Super Hornet has been approved for export, but no sales have yet been made. The F/A- 18C/D models, which are no longer in production, have been exported to eight countries.