AMONGST the three components of growth, namely, human, natural and physical capitals, the major contribution is by human capital, to the level of 64 per cent. In comparison, to quote the World Bank, natural and physical capitals contribute 20 and 16 per cent respectively. Indeed, the development of human capital is the primary factor for setting up direction and pace of national progress and prosperity. Many a nations have achieved economic strides as a direct result of creating and nurturing planned development of human resources.
Though rich in human resources, Pakistan remains underdeveloped to a great extent. Efforts made in this direction in the early seventies were significant, but these could not be sustained in later years. It is only recently that efforts have been stepped up afresh in exploiting this most valuable resource, but hard realities are that we had still to strive to generate a vision for promoting it.
The world population is 6.5 billion. Of this, 5.2 billion people belong to less developed or poor countries, forming 80 per cent of the world population, and the remaining 1.3 billion belong to the more developed or rich countries. On the basis of present growth of over one per cent annually, the population is projected to increase by another half a billion, thus totalling 7.0 billion by the year 2012. On the same parameters, population will grow globally by 2.7 billion over the next 45 years—-reaching a total of 9.2 billion by the year 2050 (US Census Bureau figures).
Pakistan is placed as the 6th largest populated country in the world, with a population of 159.19 million by the end of the year 2004, which now stands at 161.36 million. Given the current growth rate, population would increase substantially in coming years—- with a projection of 167.12 million by the end of year 2005 and 179.59 million by 2010. The projections for subsequent years are rather horrific—- 212.92 million by 2020 and 294.99 million by 2050.
The country is thus faced in future with serious challenges of dramatic shift in population structure that needs to be addressed by adopting an efficient strategy.
It is apathetic that the government expenditure on manpower development during the past decades remained negligible. Pakistan’s investment in human capital development is $10 per capita—-one of the lowest among the developing countries. It is evident that the manpower development has remained the lowest priority for the government.
As a result, Pakistan’s Human Development Indicators are among the lowest in the region, placing it at 142nd position among 177 countries, followed only by countries like Togo, Congo, Lesotho and Uganda. In fact, the UNDP Human Development Report 2004 declares Pakistan as the worst performer in South Asia.
Pakistan faces major threats of poverty and unemployment which will continue to be a formidable challenge to the nation in future too. It is a recognized fact that high unemployment rate stalls national economy. Increasing from average three per cent per annum during 1986-1990 to five per cent during 1991-1999, unemployment reached alarming proportions of 7.8 per cent in 2001 and 2002.
Owing to weak economic and social profile of the country, the adult population could not be gainfully employed, resulting in an 8.3 per cent current unemployment rate (more than 10 per cent in urban areas), plus substantial under-employment. Today, of the current workforce of some 48.40 million- as many as 6.05 million- are unemployed.
The unique aspect of the world population scenario however is that although population in developing and less-developed countries will grow from present 5.2 billion to 7.8 billion in 2050, population of industrialized countries will remain unchanged, to the current level of 1.3 billion. Individually, in countries like Germany and the Scandinavian States there is a rather sharp decline in population.
Again, the population of ageing and elderly persons in these countries is increasing, resulting in growing skill shortages. Thus the situation necessitates global immigration on a large scale, primarily from developing nations, to the industrialized countries. It is projected that the industrialised countries would require 98 million immigrants during the period 2005-2050. The signs are already visible. Germany, for example, has already allowed at least 50,000 skilled foreign workers per year from outside the European Union.
Pakistan could well serve as one of the major “source countries” for providing manpower to these markets. As one of the largest pools of skilled manpower in the world, its manpower is cheaper and highly productive, which can easily adapt to different cultures across the globe.
There are some three million Pakistanis working abroad at present; some of them even holding positions in top management. Besides the skilled and semi-skilled workers and unskilled labour, there are many Pakistani engineers, doctors and professionals in education, management, travel and hotel, banking, industry, telecommunications and health sectors.
But, the question is, are we geared to availing overseas employment opportunities for our manpower in future optimally? Certainly, not. It has not been possible, during recent years, to develop overseas job opportunities for Pakistanis due to a number of internal and external factors.
The lack of education and other facilities, and the reluctance to adopt new technologies are significant internal factors that contributed to this situation - factors that competing nations have already taken into consideration as a strategic plan.
More recently, Pakistan has even been losing out on the competitive front, where countries like Sri Lanka and Bangladesh offer better-qualified people at lower wages. These factors remain, to a large extent, unattended to.
Another negative factor is the inefficiency and slow decision-making at the government level. It is almost three years that Malaysia showed interest to recruit about one hundred thousand Pakistanis, but we are still in the process of finalizing the modalities and procedures for their selection and dispatch.
Under the projected scenario, it is imperative for the government to create national capacity to plan and deliver competitive manpower, taking into consideration present and future changes in demography, economy and technology in the potential markets.
The policy measures may thus include restructuring of institutional infrastructure on modern lines, improved labour market information, and above all, education, training/re-training and skill and productivity development of workforce commensurate with market demands.
Action is therefore urgently needed to formulate short-, medium- and long-term strategies in this direction, aiming to develop manpower inventory for overseas employment, in the backdrop of population explosion imminent in coming years.
