NEW DELHI: Two months ago, India, the United States and Britain warned Nepal's king against a unilateral grab for power. On Tuesday, he called their bluff.
King Gyanendra sacked the government, arrested politicians and assumed absolute power for three years.
The press was muzzled, phone lines snapped and the Internet closed down as Nepal seemed to retreat back into its shell. His action is being described as a "royal coup d'etat." Condemnation came swiftly.
India and the United States said the king's move played into the hands of Maoist rebels fighting a bitter nine-year-old insurgency to topple the monarchy. Britain said it was reviewing military and development aid, and the United Nations insisted democracy should be restored.
Nepal's monarch could be playing a game. "Clearly, King Gyanendra has calculated that when it comes to a choice between the monarchy and Maoists, India and the international community would have no option but to side with him," wrote Indian foreign policy expert C. Raja Mohan.
Newspapers called the king's move a "high-risk gamble". If he can do what he has promised - bring peace with the Maoists and ultimately restore democracy, the gamble could pay off. If he fails, there will be no one to blame but himself.
"WHO WILL BLINK FIRST": Nepal's civil war has cost 11,000 lives since 1996. Diplomats worry the revolt could be spinning out of control and Nepal could become a haven for international terrorist groups or drugs trafficking.
The United States and Europe want to avoid a Maoist take over. The stakes are even higher for giant neighbour India, Nepal's biggest trading partner and its largest supplier of military hardware.
India shares a long, open border with Nepal, is home to millions of Nepalis and is worried that Nepali Maoists have already forged links with left wing extremists in India.
Delhi's reaction to the king's move was uncharacteristically blunt, but analysts wonder what lies behind the bluster. It may have to learn to live with the king, they warned.
"India cannot allow the Maoists to come to power," said South Asia expert Kalim Bahadur. "It is caught between a rock and a hard place. "But it can put economic pressure on Nepal, and Gyanendra will have to think about his options also. The question is who will blink first."
Sukh Deo Muni, professor at Delhi's Jawaharlal Nehru University and an authority on Nepal, argues India should keep up the pressure by reviewing or suspending military assistance and making clear that it backs democratic forces.
Either way, it is a big test of Delhi's diplomatic skills. China, characteristically, has described events in Nepal as an "internal affair", but conspiracy theorists in India already suspect Beijing's intentions.
Adding fuel to that fire was Nepal's curiously timed decision last month to close down the office of Tibet's spiritual leader, the Dalai Lama, in Kathmandu. Is Gyanendra currying favour with Beijing in a bid to play off one Asian heavyweight against another?
Not to worry, says Uday Bhaskar of India's Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses. China has traditionally taken a "hands-off approach" to Nepal and is unlikely to interfere too aggressively in India's backyard, he said. Muni sees risks elsewhere, if India tries to mount a global coalition to force the king to back down. -Reuters
