PESHAWAR, Oct 21: The northern areas of the country and upper parts of the Frontier province are expected to experience a comparatively harsh winter this year because of an unusual change in the weather
pattern resulting from a moderate El Nino developing in the Pacific Ocean, meteorologists told Dawn on Thursday.
An Islamabad-based meteorologist, when contacted on phone, said the snowfall in several plains and hilly areas of Chitral on October 10 had been caused by a change in global weather pattern.
Ten people were killed and crops over a large area and fruit orchards were destroyed by the snowfall in the district.
An official of the Met Office, Chitral, said it was after a gap of some 40 years that the valley had received snowfall at this time of the year.
Usually, Chitral receives snow from December to February. However, this time around the district has been experiencing temperature comparatively lower than in previous years.
Chitral recorded -4 Celsius on Oct 12 when most parts of the district had received snowfall for about eight hours.
"Never in the recent past had we recorded -4 Celsius at this time of the year," said the official of the Met Office, Chitral.
People were caught off-guard by theearly snowfall. Farmers, according to local people, watched helplessly as snow played havoc with standing crops, vegetables, fruit orchards and livestock.
Chitral received 1.5 inches of snow and the adjoining hilly areas seven to eight feet, resulting in roads being blocked and several villages being rendered inaccessible.
The worst-hit areas were Booni, Garam Chashma, Kalash valleys, Mastooj, Shindoor and Laas Pur.
El Nino, a weather phenomenon which appears every four to five years because of the warming of the Pacific Ocean, had resulted in lesser rains in the country during the last monsoon, experts say.
Strong westerly waves originating from the Mediterranean and coming to Pakistan from its Northern Areas via Turkey, Iran and Afghanistan reduced the intensity of the easterly winds (monsoon), a source said.
It was because of this change in the global weather pattern, said an expert, that the country was faced with the prevailing water shortages.
Because of a drop in temperature in the Northern Areas as a result of the emerging El Nino, glaciers did not melt much in the catchment areas of the river Indus, leaving the country with less water for irrigation during the current Rabi season, experts say.
The meteorologist from Islamabad said that El Nino was developing for the last two months and its impact in terms of low temperature was expected.
"But the intensity with which it hit Chitral and several other upper parts of the NWFP and the country's Northern Areas (NAs) is unusual," said the official.
Meteorologists say that the northern parts of the country, including the NWFP, would experience more winter, more rains and more snow during the current winter season than in the past because of heavy intensity of westerly winds.
The district Dir in the Malakand region received 365mm of rains during the last two months, said a meteorologist. Normally, the district receives 30 to 40mm of rains at this time of the year.
Similarly, the Malakand region has recorded 200mm of rains during the last two months, representing a marked change in the weather pattern when compared with the past.
In days to come, said the Islamabad-based meteorologist, the emerging El Nino would intensify and several northern parts of the country would receive abnormally heavy rainfall during the current winter.
