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KABUL: The main threat to Afghan President Hamid Karzai in October elections comes from a group of veteran warriors who call themselves the United Front.
Luckily for Karzai, and some say for the country, there seems no less appropriate name to describe a movement with a history of squabbling, deadly infighting and betrayal.
The front, also known as the Northern Alliance, is made up of ethnic minority "mujahideen", who defeated the Soviets and helped the United States to rout the Taliban in 2001 for sheltering Al Qaeda and its leader, Osama bin Laden.
Alliance leaders took over key ministries in the aftermath of the Taliban's fall, but Karzai has slowly sought to replace them with Western-leaning technocrats, mostly from his dominant Pashtun tribe, whose hands are not bloodied with war.
Analysts and diplomats say the alliance's only real chance of toppling frontrunner Karzai is to prevent him winning more than 50 per cent of votes cast on October 9 and then to unite behind his closest challenger in a second round runoff.
But political logic counts for little in Afghanistan, and few are betting on a united opposition. "That would make sense in a Western country, but here who knows?" a senior Western diplomat said.
He and others say they are most concerned about parliamentary elections in April, when armed factions can more easily influence the outcome by resorting to coercion in their constituencies.
The alliance has four prominent presidential contenders who have not always been the best of friends and, in some cases, fought each other in battles that left thousands of civilians dead.
Former Education Minister Yunus Qanuni has won public support from Defence Minister Mohammad Qasim Fahim and Foreign Minister Abdullah Abdullah. All three are ethnic Tajiks and were close to the alliance's legendary assassinated leader Ahmad Shah Masood.
The other contenders are General Abdul Rashid Dostum, an unpredictable commander from the Uzbek minority, Mohammad Mohaqiq who is of the Hazara tribe and Ahmad Shah Ahmadzai - a Pashtun. While palace officials seek to play down the importance of ethnic links in elections, they are often used as a campaigning tool and are likely to be so again.
CAN THEY UNITE?: "There are two rounds in this election and it won't be easy for Qanuni to persuade Dostum or Mohaqiq to join him," said the diplomat. "The whole problem would then be, who is number one?"
That issue has thwarted attempts by the candidates to agree on a strategy to oust Karzai during recent talks. Final list of candidates on August 10 because of alleged involvement in past bloodshed and affiliations to armed militia, which is prohibited.
There is also every chance that some, if not all, of the four will seek a way back into Karzai's camp. "Each insists that he would prefer to be the main (opposition) candidate," said Fazil Sangcharaki, an Afghan journalist and commentator. "So far it does not look promising. In the meantime, these individuals will also talk to Karzai."
Even if a challenger forces Karzai to a runoff, the incumbent would remain favourite simply because he is well-known. "Name recognition will be important in a village in the middle of Uruzgan," said a Western analyst in Kabul, referring to the remote central Afghan province.
Karzai, who has US support, has sought to divide and conquer the alliance by naming Masood's brother Ahmad Zia Masood, and a Hazara, Mohammad Karim Khalili, as his two running mates.
Washington sees Karzai as the best hope of dragging his country from ruin and moderating hardline Islamic undercurrents. Nato-led peacekeepers in Kabul were on "increased vigilance" when Karzai dumped Fahim in favour of Masood, amid concerns that tensions within the government could spill over into violence.
Karzai has said commanders resisting his disarmament drive, including Fahim, Dostum and Ahmadzai's boss Abdul Rabb Rasoul Sayyaf, pose a greater threat to security than militants waging an insurgency.
"During the period immediately after October 9, when the ballots are counted, there may be violent protests in a country where all major candidates control armed forces," Barnett R. Rubin, director of studies at New York University's Center on International Cooperation, wrote this week. -Reuters
