| 29 June 2004 | Tuesday | 10 Jamadi-ul-Awwal 1425 |
Karachi finances
Developments following Mr Zafarullah Jamali's exit as prime minister have only underlined the unpredictable nature of Pakistani politics. They have also, while ostensibly addressing one crisis, created new uncertainties.
Mr Zafarullah Khan Jamali chose to bow out quietly, sparing President Pervez Musharraf the embarrassment of invoking the resurrected Article 58-2(b). But the immediate post-Jamali scenario is hazy.
One does not know what is the wisdom in having an interim prime minister and another "in waiting" - another unique contribution to constitutionalism. If Mr Shaukat Aziz is finally to be the prime minister, the power brokers could have planned the shuffling process by having him elected on a safe seat and inducted as leader of the house before asking Mr Jamali to leave.
Instead, we must now wait for someone to make a safe constituency available to Senator Aziz, who has no constituency of his own, to become an MNA. In the meantime, the Chaudhry of Gujrat will run the administration, making everyone wonder whether there will be continuity of policies or Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain would want to put his own stamp there to remember him by. In any case, coherent political articulation and leadership qualities are not his strong points.
Nor, like some others, is he unsinged by allegations of past wrong-doing. His forte is believed to have been political manipulation rather than good governance. Meanwhile, since Mr Shaukat Aziz will be there in the interim cabinet with his meticulous statistics and percentage points, one can guess who would command greater attention.
While the government will not come to a standstill, this dichotomy of powers will be felt acutely in matters that demand urgent policy decisions - like the Karachi cauldron or the simmering Wana brew. And no one can predict what Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain's mood will be when the time to hand over comes.
In matters of foreign policy, let us not delude ourselves into believing that prime ministers have much to do with it. Foreign policy is crafted by the generals, and is pursued by career diplomats and the "specialists" in the foreign office.
For that reason, the transition - or the vacuum - in the prime minister's office should have no bearing on external affairs, and the peace process with India should proceed without a hitch. Mr Khurshid Mehmood Kasuri, in all probability, will be there in the new cabinet, as will be Mr Faisal Saleh Hayat - being a PPPP rebel he is too precious for the PML-led coalition tol lose.
The system cobbled together may have survived, but those who pull the strings from behind the scenes have stuck to at least one tradition - no prime minister should be allowed to complete the constitutional five-year term. Mr Mohammad Khan Junejo, Ms Benazir Bhutto and Mr Nawaz Sharif never had the satisfaction of completing their five years in office and were booted out long before they could go to the people to seek a fresh mandate.
However, with the next elections due in 2007, Mr Aziz stands a good chance of completing the remaining three and a half years. His management of the economy has endeared him to the generals and Pakistan's aid-givers. The country doesn't stand to lose if it has a prime minister focussed on the economy.
But Mr Aziz has no political base and little political experience, leadership deficits that will not be easy to fix or overcome. He may also find the pressures from the PML a little pressing - and there's the small thing of satisfying the smaller provinces, whose sense of political deprivation could only have deepened with the weekend's changes.
Karachi finances
The Karachi city district government has passed a surplus budget for the next fiscal year, having a total outlay of over Rs32.67 billion and no new taxes. That, seemingly, is a lot of money but when it comes to a mega-city like Karachi which has more than its due share of acute, widespread and chronic civic problems, it's all but a drop in the ocean.
For instance, the outgoing year's surplus budget did not do much to correct a given problem. The city's water supply, for which Rs2.1 billion were earmarked last year, has remained as inadequate and erratic as ever.
Compare that with the upcoming fiscal year's allocation of a measly Rs500 million for water and sewerage and one gets an idea of what to expect in the next 12 months. The overall surplus this time is Rs36.37 million but that too is bound to disappear through many loopholes and crevices in civic management.
Last year, Karachi saw two major disasters: the Tasman Spirit oil slick and the torrential monsoon rains. The former left the coastline badly damaged and the latter saw the city roads and utilities in a shambles for weeks and months.
While presenting the next fiscal year's estimates, the city Nazim chose not to give any appraisal of the outgoing year's spending. This has left one wondering whether there were any improvements made or targets met during the year. Also, there was a complete silence on the realization or otherwise of the presiden
t's special four-year package of Rs29 billion which he announced last year to fix Karachi's battered infrastructure. The incoming year's estimates include a total of Rs6.12 billion for services and works and an additional ADP allocation of Rs1.2 billion.
Health gets an increased allocation of Rs2.12 billion and education Rs6.13 billion. The amounts look quite substantial on the face of it, but the problem with Karachi is that since the merger of various civic agencies and departments into the city district government following the devolution plan, the breakdown of finances is not clear.
One does not know, for instance, what percentage of the sums allocated for each sector is for covering non-development expenditure. The city government has provided subsidies in both health and education sectors - abolition of hospital fees in the former and issuance of grants of up to Rs200 per month for each girl student up to the high school level being just two such cases.
Thus, obviously, a hefty chunk of the allocations made for health and education will continue to cover non-development expenditure. The Nazim has announced the setting up of a diagnostic centre and a hospital in the city but no new schools.
Last year, promises were made of giving Karachi a cardiac centre and a woman's university - the latter more in pursuance of the city government's ideological leanings - but no progress has been reported on either of the projects. While the promises of building a number of flyovers and underpasses, 490 bus stops, 18 model parks and the induction of 273 more buses were part of the budget speech, no updates were offered on last year's pledges regarding several hundred new buses and 470 bus stops, or indeed public parks.
The planned train-based mass transit system also finds no mention in the Nazim's speech. Conspicuous too by its absence was any long-term plan to enhance the city's existing infrastructure to ease the mounting pressure on civic services and utilities as a result of a continuing increase in population, especially the rural influx.
The city government has apparently no plan to improve living conditions in kachchi abadis where the new arrivals join those who have been there for some years. Surely a part of the next budget's surplus reserve can go into improving conditions in these neglected areas.