04 June 2004	Friday	15 Rabi-us-Saani 1425

ISLAMABAD, June 3: Pakistan's total consumption for next year (2004-05) is projected at $85.6 billion (Rs4,944.3 billion), up by around 10 per cent from current year's $77.86 billion (Rs4,495.8 billion).

Official estimates suggest the gross domestic product (GDP) at current market price would increase by 9.4 per cent to $104.4 billion (Rs6,029.4 billion) from current year's projected GDP of $94.5 billion (Rs5,458.1 billion).

Net factor income from abroad is expected to reduce by a whopping 38 per cent to $1.264 billion (Rs73 billion) against current year's estimates of $2.05 billion (Rs118.2 billion).

As such, the gross national product (GNP) has been forecast to increase by 9.4 per cent to $105.69 billion (Rs6,102.7 billion) against current year's $96.576 billion (Rs5,576.3 billion).

Similarly, total resources/uses are estimated to increase by 11.4 per cent to $105.764 billion (Rs6,106.7 billion) during 2004-05 compared with $94.95 billion (Rs5,482.7 billion) in 2003-04.

These estimates are based on constant factor cost of 1999-2000 after inclusion of new sectors like information technology and mobile telecom, mineral water, etc. The total investment for the year 2004-05 is projected to go up by 17.8 per cent compared with increase rate of 22.3 per cent in 2003-04.

The total investment is expected to be around Rs1,162.4 billion in 2004-05 compared with Rs986.9 billion during the current year. Of this, fixed investment is projected at Rs1,056.5 billion as against Rs892.5 billion during the current year.

Public investment would amount to Rs312.9 billion next year compared with Rs253.3 billion in current year. Private investment is projected at Rs743.6 billion next year compared with Rs639.2 billion this year.

SAVINGS: National savings are projected at Rs1,158.4 billion compared with current year's Rs1,080.5 billion. However, it would reduce to 19.2 per cent of GDP next year compared with 19.8 of GDP during the current year.

In percentage terms, the total investment is projected at 19.3 per cent of GDP in 2004-05 compared with 18.1 per cent during the current year. Fixed investment is also projected at 17.5 per cent of GDP next year compared with 16.4 per cent of GDP this year.

Public and private investments are projected at 5.2 per cent and 12.3 per cent next year against 4.6 per cent and 11.7 per cent of GDP during current year. Inflation as measured by consumer price indicator is estimated at 4.5 per cent next year compared with revised estimates of 4.1 per cent during the current year.