ISLAMABAD, May 17: Pakistan is expecting to achieve a GDP growth rate of 6.3 per cent during the current fiscal year against its budgeted target of 5.3 per cent, Dawn has learnt.
A senior government official told Dawn that National Accounts Committee (NAC) that met here on Monday was presented with latest figures of the performance of the economy.
"The latest figures indicate GDP growth rate to touch 6.3 per cent by end of the current fiscal year and the growth is broad-based and led particularly by the industry", the official said. Wheat production, which has lion's share in the GDP, is now estimated at 20 million tons, he said.
When contacted, Dr Ashfaque Hasan Khan who is economic adviser to the federal government confirmed that growth rate would be higher than six per cent and it has been his policy to remain conservative in estimates so that expectations of the people are not raised unnecessarily.
He said it was welcome to note that it would be "an industry-led growth" instead of agriculture-led growth that could fluctuate with mother nature as happened in India recently.
He, however, said he was not in a position to say whether or not the economy would grow by 6.3 per cent because the NAC was given up-to-date figures by the provincial governments and autonomous organizations and the statistics division would need two-three days to come up with the final growth estimates.
The government had revised upward GDP growth forecast from budgeted 5.3 per cent to 5.8 per cent owing to about 15 per cent higher production in large-scale manufacturing during first nine months of the current fiscal year.
The NAC that was presided over by secretary statistic division also reviewed the national accounts for last five years on the basis of new up-dated base of 1999-2000 and directed the Federal Bureau of Statistics (FBS) to update the accounts of all sectors under the new base.
The NAC reviewed the new numbers presented to it and discussed the performance of various economic sectors and the size of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) under the new base, which the NAC was informed would be bigger in size as compared to the previous base of 1980-81.
A number of new items have now been included in the GDP. For example Nestle bottled water and mobile telephone sector that has grown manifold during the last couple of years.
The NAC meeting was attended by representatives of chambers, professors of universities, economists, officials of Pakistan Institute of Development Economics (PIDE), independent researchers, FBS officials, and officials of line ministries and departments.
