LAHORE, May 1: While estimates and government expectations for the wheat crop placing it above the target fixed by the federal government, the predicted 20.1 million ton produce is likely to leave the country short of the domestic bill.
The crop looks insufficient to underwrite post harvest losses, seed retained for the next cultivation and wide scale purchases by the private sector, mainly for smuggling of the commodity and still leave enough for the populace.
These factors plus an unspecified number of refugees that need to be fed pose another threat to food sufficiency in the country during the period till the next crop. A crisis is already building with rise in the price of flour.
The impact of recent dust storms and rains is still to be assessed but they have certainly damaged the crops in many parts of the province where sowing was late, which led to delay in maturing of the crop and affected harvested wheat that was lying in the open in many fields across the Punjab.
Ground conditions present an uncertain picture of the yield with widespread reports of grain shrivelling because of unfavourable weather in the wheat heartland of Punjab and, despite news of higher urea off-take, it was said that application of fertilizers was short of requirements.
Experts predict Punjab falling short of the 16 million ton target by half to three quarters of a ton, leaving the province with about 15.25 to 15.30 million ton yield. They say that the crop could be less than that estimate but not more than that.
After deducting 10 to 15 per cent, most experts place this percentage at 15 to 20, from the output for seed and post harvest losses, the total wheat is reduced to about 14 million tons. This adds up to a serious shortfall of the country's staple food in the coming days.
Reports about the crop in Sindh, harvested earlier because the cultivation cycle of the province is ahead of Punjab and NWFP by over a month, are positive. However, considering that the target allocated to Sindh was 2.25 million tons while the overall target was 20 million tons, its output have a limited bearing on the final grain count.
Information so far available on Punjab's wheat crop suggests that a final count is not possible as yet because crop development followed an erratic pattern and contained more than the usual mately 10 to 15 per cent higher produce in districts of Sahiwal, Okara and Faisalabad and a little less yield than this percentage but still marginally above the last year's results in Bahawalpur, Bahawalnagar, Rahim Yar Khan and Sadiqabad.
On the other hand, a loss in produce reportedly registered in Muzzaffargarh, Dera Ghazi Khan, Rajan Pur, Shujaabad and some other points due to vagaries of whether and scarcity of water. The extent of both gains and losses is, however, yet to be determined.
Growers from Muzzaffargarh have been complaining that their crop was badly hit by the twin assault of weather and water, causing shrivelling of grain. This contention has not been contradicted by the Punjab government at any level. Grain shrivelling was not confined to these areas only. It is to be translated in to loss of weight of the crop.
The saving grace for Punjab's wheat may turn out to be rain fed areas where produce is usually low but conducive conditions helped the region to come up with what is being described by many growers as a near bumper harvest. But the area is small and its affect on the crop size would not be significant.
In any case, the factor of grain shrivelling places a question mark against wheat from Punjab and it is possible that claims and forecasts are not borne out by end results. This has created a fluid situation.
Early harvesting of wheat-the process starts by the end of April but it commenced in early April this year in many parts of the province and was widely in progress by the middle of the month because rise in temperature caused relatively rapid maturity of grain. This is a clear indicator that grain did not fully form in many fields.
It is to be hoped that official assessments of the crop prove correct but even if that happens, a shortfall in the context of domestic requirements seems on the cards due to post harvest losses and seed for the next year. Rampant hoarding of wheat makes the wheat scenario bleak for the coming months.
