NEW DELHI: It was almost too good to be true: runaway economic growth, low interest rates, an opposition in disarray. Even the monsoon was kind, watering bumper crops.
Now, midway through India's multi-stage election, the very "feel-good" factors that tempted Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee to an early poll may be backfiring.
With two rounds of voting to go before counting in mid-May, exit polls and some analysts suggest Vajpayee's Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its allies may fall well short of a clear majority in the 545-seat parliament.
"It's become an open election campaign - all the certainties are gone," said Vinod Mehta, editor of the Outlook newsweekly. "Exit polls are an inexact science, but they do give some idea of how the wind is blowing - and it's blowing against the... (BJP-led coalition) getting a clear majority."
The surprise shift shocked financial markets, worried that a weakened BJP may backtrack on economic reforms. It also raised fears that the apparent failure of the party to capture the moderate, centre ground could trigger renewed pressure from Hindu hardliners to return to its right-wing Hindu policies.
A month after opinion polls showed the coalition winning easily, analysts say there is no single deciding factor in the turnaround.
ANGER AMONG THE POOR: Rather, several combined: from anger among the 700 million rural poor left behind in the "India Shining" boom, to an opposition revitalized by the charismatic new generation of the Nehru-Gandhi dynasty, to purely local and state grievances.
"A lot of people who were bemused, confused or apathetic have been galvanized by the Congress on issues such as unemployment and the growing disparities between the rich and the poor," said analyst and columnist Prem Shankar Jha.
"They have come out and voted." Mehta said very few had benefited from the strong economy and low interest rates, mainly the middle class who shy away from voting. And the BJP's saturation campaign of "India Shining" selling the good times backfired in rural areas, which do vote.
"India is shining for very few people. When the BJP says India is shining but farmers are committing suicide in your state because they can't survive, or you can't even feed your family, it makes you even angrier," he said.
During the campaign, Congress, led by Italian-born Sonia Gandhi, forged crucial alliances in key large states where polls show it made strong gains in Monday's third round of voting.
And the entry of Gandhi's popular daughter, Priyanka, and son, Rahul - whose father, grandmother and great-grandfather were all prime ministers - boosted its fortunes in the villages.
An average of five television exit polls tallied by the Times of India gave the BJP coalition 140 of the 276 seats which have voted so far, down 33 from 1999, and Congress and its allies 100 seats, a gain of 28.
Based on a combination of exit and opinion polls - which have a wildly varied track record - TV stations forecast anywhere from 235 to 279 seats for the BJP and its allies, which won 306 seats in the last election in 1999.
Vajpayee's National Democratic Alliance of about 20 parties remains favourite to form a government, although it may have to scramble to find new allies, making concessions to small parties.
But financial markets are concerned about a weakened BJP's ability to push through promised economic reforms. The main Mumbai stock index had lost more than three percent by mid-afternoon and bonds and the rupee also slid. "The critical thing will be the nature of the coalition that emerges and the stability of that coalition," said Rajiv Malik, an analyst with J.P Morgan in Singapore. -Reuters
