Provinces offered seven options: Resource-sharing formula
By Khaleeq Kiani
ISLAMABAD, April 18: The federal government has given seven options to the provinces on what is called the horizontal distribution of net proceeds of the divisible pool in the sixth National Finance Commission (NFC) and Punjab will be the loser in all the cases.
The NWFP and Balochistan would be beneficiaries in all the options while Sindh would benefit in six and lose in one. This has been revealed in a working paper handed over to the provinces by the finance ministry on Friday.
The federal government has asked the provinces to go through the seven options and their financial impact, consult each other, and come up with a response before the next session of the NFC, a senior official said.
The paper, seen by this correspondent, suggests that four factors would form part of the multi-dimensional formula for distribution of resources among the provinces as Punjab has shown flexibility by giving up its demand for a 'population-alone' criterion.
Population would, however, get the lion's share in the multi-dimensional basket for resource distribution. Revenue collection gets four per cent weightage in all the options. The provinces' shares would change in all the seven cases.
The first option gives an 80 per cent weightage to population, 10 per cent to backwardness or poverty, six per cent to inverse population density (IPD) and four per cent to revenue collection. Under this formula, Punjab's share has been estimated at 53.39 per cent, Sindh's at 25.06 per cent, NWFP's at 14.31 per cent and Balochistan's at 7.42 per cent.
Punjab would lose 3.97 per cent from its current share of 57.36 per cent. Sindh's share would increase by 1.35 per cent from its share of 23.71 per cent. The NWFP's share would go up by 0.49 per cent from its current share of 13.82 per cent. Balochistan would get 2.31 per cent higher than its existing share of 5.11 per cent.
The second option gives 85 per cent weightage to population, 10 per cent to backwardness, one per cent to IPD and four per cent to revenue collection. This would translate into a 49.32 per cent share for Punjab, 24.22 per cent for Sindh, 14.83 per cent for the NWFP and 11.60 per cent for Balochistan.
In this case, Punjab's share would drop by 8.04 per cent and those of Sindh, the NWFP and Balochistan would increase by 0.51 per cent, 1.01 per cent and 6.49 per cent, respectively.
The third option envisages 90 per cent weightage to population, four per cent each to backwardness and revenue collection and two per cent to IPD. This would yield a 51.97 per cent share for Punjab, 25.04 per cent for Sindh, 15.24 per cent for the NWFP and 7.75 per cent for Balochistan.
In this case, Punjab would lose 5.39 per cent while Sindh, the NWFP and Balochistan would benefit by 1.33 per cent, 1.42 per cent and 2.64 per cent, respectively.
The fourth option provides for 85 per cent weightage to population and five per cent each to the three other factors. As such, Punjab would get 53.53 per cent, Sindh 25.07 per cent, the NWFP 14.07 per cent and Balochistan 7.33 per cent. In this case, Punjab would lose by 3.83 per cent while Sindh, the NWFP and Balochistan would get 1.36 per cent, 0.25 per cent and 2.22 per cent higher than their existing shares, respectively.
The fifth option offers 88.35 per cent weightage to population, 5.75 per cent to backwardness, 4.15 per cent to revenue collection and 1.75 per cent to IPD. This formula promises a 51.25 per cent share for Punjab, 24.99 per cent for Sindh, 13.95 per cent for the NWFP and 9.81 per cent for Balochistan.
Thus, the share of Punjab will shrink by 6.11 per cent while those of Sindh, the NWFP and Balochistan would go up by 1.28 per cent, 0.13 per cent and 4.70 per cent, respectively.
The sixth option envisages 87.8 per cent weightage to population while poverty, IPD and revenue would get six per cent, two per cent and 4.2 per cent share, respectively. Punjab, Sindh, the NWFP and Balochistan would get their share in the order of 53 per cent, 25.12 per cent, 14.40 per cent and 7.48 per cent.
In this case, Punjab would lose by 4.36 per cent, while Sindh, the NWFP and Balochistan would get their share higher by 1.41 per cent, 0.58 per cent and 2.37 per cent. The seventh option gives 90 per cent weightage to population. Backwardness would get two per cent while IPD and revenue collection would receive four per cent weightage each.
In this case, the share of Punjab, Sindh, the NWFP and Balochistan has been projected at 52.76 per cent, 22.09 per cent, 14.42 per cent and 7.72 per cent, respectively. Punjab and Sindh would lose by 4.60 per cent and 1.62 per cent respectively while the NWFP and Balochistan would benefit by 0.60 per cent and 2.61 per cent, respectively.