LAHORE, April 14: The Punjab government expects that the wheat yield may exceed the target of 16 million tons. According to the second assessment of the agriculture department, which had been based on reports of its crop reporting wing, the province may cross the target by at least 100,000 tons.
"It is a highly conservative estimate," an official of the Punjab government said on Wednesday. He said that this year the agriculture department had been very careful in assessing crop size because of last year's debacle and subsequent food crisis in the country.
The department compared all the crop yield contributing factors to that of the last few years, specially 2000 when the country had a bumper crop. All factors were found to be favourable except for the temperature, which went up by 5 degrees.
Around 11 per cent more DAP was used this year. Similarly, coverage of herbicide went up substantially. Water availability was better than the last few years; rains in the beginning of the year further eased the pressure. Use of certified seed also went up by a few notches. The assessment was based on all these factors and early harvesting signs.
Harvesting started mostly in the southern part of the Punjab and would extend to the central part in the next few days. There has been no reports of grain shrivelling from any part of the province.
The department also knew that damage could be done to grain and had been waiting anxiously for damage assessment. "Luckily, the crop seems to have escaped any substantially damage and is healthy," the official claimed.
The Punjab Food Department claimed to have launched its daily survey of the crop cutting. On the basis of the reports from its district officials involved in procurement process, the department maintained that crop size would go up to 16.4 million tons.
Food department sources said that the reports from the areas where harvesting was in full swing suggested an increase of five to six maunds per acre, specially in the southern Punjab. "If the central Punjab follows the trend, the country could expect a bumper crop, " the sources said, but suggested "Let's wait for next reports.
"Another hope is the price factor. It was around Rs380 per 40kg, but now ranging between Rs240 and 360. It shows that farmers and private sector know the size of the crop and are bracing themselves for the affects of the healthy crop," they claimed.
The pace of procurement had also been encouraging, they said and added: "During the last four days, it was almost doubling on a daily basis. Till April 13, the department had procured 35,000 tons while the Passco around 23,000 tons. Both agencies are picking the pace and hoping the trend to continue."
Of the total production of 16.4 million tons, that the department is expecting, around 7 million tons would become 'tradable surplus.' The private sector, the food department and the Pakistan Agriculture Storage and Services Corporation (Passco) would compete for the seven million tons, they said.
The private sector secured around Rs12.5 billion for commodity procurement from the State Bank. "Even if it adds Rs4 billion from its own pocket, it would not be able to purchase more than 1.8 million tons, leaving around 5.2 million tons for the food department and the Passco.
"The combined target of the two for current year is no more than 4.7 million tons -- 3.5 million tons for the food department and 1.22 million tons for the Passco from the Punjab. It still leaves some 500,000 tons for market manoeuvring," they said.
