Breaking the impasse
By Najmuddin A. Shaikh
IN MY last article I had presumed that US Deputy Secretary Armitage and Assistant Secretary Rocca would be coming to South Asia primarily to see what could be done to secure a resumption of the Indo-Pakistan dialogue. Prime Minister Jamali said after his White House meeting that President Bush had assured him that the US would play an active role in the revival of talks between India and Pakistan.
It has now become clear that this is not the focus of the Armitage visit and that he will be talking primarily about the worsening security situation in Afghanistan and the contribution expected from Pakistan to ameliorate it. It has also been revealed that during the recent US-Pakistan high level meetings the only written deal reached between the two sides was a letter of agreement signed between the two sides on September 23 during President Musharraf’s visit and that the commitments contained in this letter were reaffirmed during Prime Minister Jamali’s meeting with Secretary Powell.
These commitments, spelt out in an American State Department press release issued after Powell’s meeting with Jamali, included strengthening of Pakistan’s control over frontier areas bordering Afghanistan; continuing road construction in FATA; and creation of a border security coordination centre.
This was, as the press release made clear, part of the bilateral cooperation in the war against terrorism and the fight to stop narcotic drug trafficking.
Reading through the press briefings by the State Department spokesman in recent days the message one gets is that the United States is working with India and Pakistan to “look at some of the issues between them” and to encourage them to start engaging in discussions to resolve these issues (Department of State briefing) and, after the Pakistan missile test, “we have continued to urge both Pakistan and India to take steps to restrain their nuclear weapon and their missile programmes... We have also encouraged them to begin a dialogue on confidence-building measures... obviously we think that dialogue could be part of a broader engagement between the two countries to reduce tensions” (another briefing).
On “cross-border terrorism” the American position was “what I would say is the issue of cross-border terrorism remains important to us. President Musharraf has made commitments to end the cross-border activity, and that remains very important to us, and remains a subject of continuing discussion with the Pakistani government as they try to achieve that goal”.
There is nothing in the foregoing that suggests any particular pressure being applied to India to resume the dialogue with Pakistan. On the other hand, Prime Minister Vajpayee speaking to reporters maintained that President Bush had told President Musharraf in New York that Pakistan was running terrorist training camps and that these should be dismantled (Hindu) while an apparently “well-informed” Indian journalist maintained that Vajpayee had been told by President Bush that “US officials (he possibly meant Richard Armitage) had actually shown Musharraf satellite photos of the camps where terrorists were trained and asked him to shut them down” (Vir Sanghvim Hindustan Times)
Certainly there is no indication that there has been any appreciable slowing in the development of Indo-US relations because of Indian obduracy on the question of a dialogue with Pakistan. On the contrary we have reports of the commencement of a joint naval exercise, — Malabar 3 — involving a large number of ships and submarines and thousand of naval personnel. Earlier American and Indian commandos trained together in Jammu and Kashmir. Presumably the Americans were aware of the fact that this may well be construed as calling into question the stated UN and US position that Kashmir is a disputed territory, a fact which is still to be decided.
We have a statement from Secretary Powell, in an interview to the Washington Post that the United States had now decided on a “glide path” to meet Indian wishes for greater transfers from the US of equipment and technology in the “high-tech, space launch and in nuclear fields (referred to as the trinity of Indian demands).
This would be a three-phase programme in which in return for India taking certain steps such as strengthening its legal and physical capacity to restrict exports of sensitive technology, the US would respond by allowing greater transfers of high-tech and other equipment. Powell believed that the glide path approach had been well received in India and the exact details which were still being worked out would be announced shortly.
Sadly but realistically one must reach the conclusion that growth in Indo-US relations will not be made conditional on India taking steps to resolve its disputes with Pakistan. The only American requirement will be that India not take any step that increases the prospect of Indo-Pakistan military conflict or confrontation. The usual noises will be made but nothing concrete will be achieved.
The Indian posture is even tougher. End the infiltration and talk about issues other than Kashmir to create conditions in which Kashmir can be amicably resolved. This is an unrealistic posture but is likely to be maintained since India’s current rulers or at least their most important supporters believe that a tough, unyielding posture will yield dividends in the forthcoming state elections and the national elections in 2004.
The killings in Kashmir will continue. A recent well researched report in the Christian Science Monitor (Upsurge in boys drawn into Kashmir conflict) shows that the insurgency and its indigenous base is gaining strength. It points out that in the last year some 600 Kashmiri youth were reported as missing by their parents and have apparently been recruited by the freedom fighters. If 600 have been reported missing one can safely assume that two or three times that number has joined with parental consent.
The Indians will continue to maintain nonetheless that the insurgency is externally fomented. (The Christian Science Monitor report also says that these boys go across to Pakistan for training). They claim that 75 per cent of the “militants” killed this year are Pakistanis. They are proceeding with the fencing of the LoC. Their operations against the “militants” and their supporters are being intensified.
Few political or economic measures have been taken to ameliorate the situation in occupied Kashmir. In that regard they believe that having held the elections they have done what was needed and now further action would concentrate on breaking the unity of the political wing of the freedom struggle.
Meanwhile the war of words will continue with India believing that it has the world on its side and therefore can set aside the views of sane and sensible Indians who advocate a resumption of dialogue as the only pragmatic way forward.
So what should we do now? I believe that we should adopt a two-pronged approach. First, we should tell the Indians through diplomatic channels that we are prepared for a restoration of the situation that prevailed before the troop movements of December 2001. This would mean the resumption of the Samjhota train service and the air flights between the two countries in mutual interest — the resumption of overflights being more an Indian and less a Pakistani interest — bringing the diplomatic missions of the two countries back to the staffing levels of Dec. 2001 and intensifying the dialogue through diplomatic channels to resolve such humanitarian problems as detained fishermen in both countries.
These are not particularly imaginative steps; in one form or another they have figured in informal contacts — but presenting the proposal formally will give it greater weight particularly when it can be argued that this is what the Indians themselves profess to want.
Second, let us propose the setting up of a team that can work in tandem at the proposal of transit through Pakistan of Indian goods destined for Afghanistan and of gas from either Iran or Turkmenistan through Pakistan to India. The Indians have made much of the fact that Indian assistance to Afghanistan is becoming horrendously expensive because of the long route it has to take while Pakistan has been making much of the fact that by not accepting an Indo-Iranian gas pipeline through Pakistan India is missing a golden opportunity to promote regional cooperation. Perhaps a melding of the two proposals would make it workable politically for both sides.
Third, let us make it clear that at the forthcoming Saarc summit we expect that India will, in line with its own proposals, engage in “informal consultations” bilaterally to seek a better understanding of each other’s perspective.
As regards the Americans towards whom the second prong of our approach will be directed, we know they can use the leverage they enjoy with New Delhi to secure serious consideration of these proposals. It was clear then and has become clearer now that Prime Minister Vajpayee’s April peace overture was prompted by concerns that Washington had expressed about the rise in tensions prompted by intemperate statements from Indian leaders about their right to engage in pre-emptive strikes against Pakistan and their demands for including Pakistan in the “axis of evil”.
It yielded dividends. The Americans, welcoming the relaxation of tension, promptly withdrew their objections to the sale of the Israeli Phalcon radar system to India. Now they have the “glide path” to offer and can expect some Indian receptivity in this area, particularly when the Indians have turned them down flat on the idea of troops for Iraq.
We should reiterate to them Musharraf’s proposal for the dialogue on Kashmir and other issues. The Indian misinterpretation of Musharraf’s idea for reducing violence in Kashmir to score debating points should not be allowed to detract from its inherent merit or to denigrate the proposal as a whole.
Will this approach work? Probably not. But there is no harm in trying.
The writer is former foreign secretary of Pakistan.


Saarc: developing human resources
By Dr M. Jahangir Kabir
THE development of human resource has been recognized as one amongst many objectives of long-term economic growth by most developing countries since the early fifties. But it had moved to the centre stage of development priorities by the early seventies.
The reasons which brought about this shift in priorities were many but three main factors played a critical role. The first was the general disillusionment with the purely growth-oriented development strategies pursued in the fifties and sixties with their major thrust on the directly productive sectors and supporting physical infrastructure. But in many cases, this resulted in the neglect of social sectors, principally education, health, housing and other social services.
The second factor emerging from the results of economic research confirmed that investment in human capital could contribute significantly and directly to overall growth and development. This was especially true for investment in skill development programmes and investment in basic health services, including access to clean drinking water.
Finally, there was the realization that the strategy which emphasized the provision of increasing productive employment for the labour force, as well as increasing productivity, especially in the so-called ‘informal’ sectors of the economy would provide the best route to solving the apparent dichotomy between growth and development.
The author of the 1995 UNDP Human Development Report, Dr Mahbubul Haq, rightly said: “South Asia’s real wealth is its people. We can completely change the economic and political destiny of the South Asian countries if we show the imagination to invest in these people.
Saarc region, according to Human Development Report 2000, enters the 21st Century with 515 million people in absolute poverty, some 400 million illiterate adults, and approximately 80 million malnourished children. Preventable diseases kill 3.2 million children each year in South Asia.
During the last half century, there has been significant economic growth in the Saarc region. Gross domestic product (GDP) per capita has almost tripled since 1960. All three major sectors — agriculture, industry and service — have witnessed reasonable growth over the last 30-35 years. In particular, the service sector has expanded greatly; in India, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh, it now contributes over 45 per cent of GDP.
Poverty and human deprivation pervades the Saarc region. Progress in some areas in this region has been made compared to the initial conditions at independence. But high population growth rates in some countries have neutralized progress achieved earlier. Also concern for human development has not been enough of a priority in the region.
The result is that there are now increasing absolute numbers of people without adequate health and sanitation, more under-nourished children and more people who are illiterate. Also increasingly important is the withering away of traditional livelihoods as a result of unsustainable environmental practices. A prosperous future for the Saarc region is dependent on the solution of these problems.
Within Saarc there is much to be gained from cooperation in terms of poverty reduction, social sector development, tourism, energy, transport and communication. At the tenth Saarc summit in Colombo in 1998 a social charter was proposed to deal with many social issues and with efforts to address the many derivations faced by the largely poor, uneducated, and under-served population in the region.
At the eleventh summit held at Kathmandu in January 2002, the heads of state or government of the Saarc countries reiterated the need for an early finalization of the Saarc social charter and instructed the governmental expert group to expedite its work and present it for consideration at the next meeting of the council of ministers.
Saarc region has all the potential to become the most dynamic region in the 21st century if there is adequate investment in human development. It can learn a great deal from the development strategies followed in recent decades by Japan, he East Asian tigers, and China.
It was through human development strategies that a major breakthrough was made by Japan in the 1940s and 1950s; by the East Asian tigers (Korea, former Hong Kong, Singapore, Taiwan, Malaysia and Thailand) in the 1960s and 1970 and by China in the 1980s and 1990s. There is considerable evidence of the benefits of investment in human development also in the Saarc region.
The Human Development Report of 1998 in South Asia cited the following:
* In urban India, when mothers were uneducated, the child mortality rate was as high as 82 per thousand, but it dropped sharply to 34 per thousand when mothers were educated.
* In Bangladesh, contraceptive use was only 27 per cent for women with no education but increased to 66 per cent for women with more than secondary education.
* In Pakistan, a study has estimated that its per capita GDP in 1985 would have been 25 per cent higher if, in 1960, it had had Indonesia’s primary school enrolment rates.
* In Nepal, increasing the average education of a farmer by one year expanded agricultural output by 5.2 per cent in the Terai region and by 5.9 per cent in the hill region.
* In India, increasing average primary schooling of the work force by one year increased output by 23 per cent.
* In Sri Lanka, high female literacy (87 per cent) has contributed to a decline in the rate of population growth to only 1.3 per cent a year.
Thus, there is clear evidence from the Saarc region’s own experience that investment in human development leads to many social benefits, including improvements in standards of hygiene, reduction in infant and child mortality, decline in population growth rates, increase in labour productivity, rise in civic consciousness, greater political empowerment and democratization and an improved sense of national unity. However, Saarc region economies cannot hope to achieve a decisive breakthrough in development or to become the industrial tigers of the future without a generous investment in human development.
The heads of state and government of Saarc countries agreed to establish the Saarc Human Resource Development Centre (SHRDC) with the object of undertaking research, imparting training and disseminating information on HRD-related issues and advising the member states on related policies and strategies. Pakistan offered to host the centre at Islamabad and it came into being in 1999.
Regional Training on Poverty Alleviation through HRD: The objective of this training programme is to strengthen the ability of the participants to formulate policies and design programmes and projects to alleviate poverty in their respective countries. The training course was held from 15-28 September 2003. Participants from Bangladesh, Bhutan, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka took part in the course.
Regional training on gender and development: The objectives of this training programme are to strengthen the ability of the participants in carrying out critical analysis in the broad area of gender issues. This training is being held this month.
In most developing countries vocational and technical education and training (VTET) has been identified as a leading component in HRD. The Saarc region is also attempting to cater to the future needs of the work force. The objective of the training course is to strengthen the abilities of participants to identify the importance of VTET. The training course will be held on 8-22 December, 2003.
Every member country of Saarc is spending a large percentage of its annual budget on human resource development through different sectors. Today, specialization has reached a point that there are research, development and training centres exclusively or partly engaged in the improvement or development of human resource in the Saarc region. In the absence of such work SHRDC is bringing out a directory of HRD institutions in the Saarc countries. SHRDC has also launched its website.
SHRDC plans in future to concentrate on core and focussed programmes of activities, which will give tangible benefit to the member states in the region according to its mandate and terms of references. The centre is also gathering HRD-related study reports and other relevant information which are readily available with the member states and the Saarc secretariat, and compiling these information in order to draw up a road map for future plan of activities of the centre.
The writer is acting director of Saarc Human Resource Development Centre.

