LAHORE, Sept 24: The country may face shortage of water up to 12 per cent during the coming Rabi season, according to early estimates of the Punjab Irrigation Department.

A spokesman for the department claimed on Wednesday that these were preliminary calculations, which were subject to slight changes depending on the behaviour of rivers in the coming weeks.

He said the overall rivers’ flow had been much better in September this year. On Wednesday, the Indus river had an inflow of 99,900 cusecs at Tarbela against last year’s 65,700 cusecs. The Jhelum had an inflow of 28,483 cusecs against last year’s 17,700 cusecs, the Kabul had an inflow of 15,600 cusecs against last year’s 12,600 and the Chenab had 47,918 cusecs against 21,880 cusecs recorded last year..

He hoped that the overall better river flow could bring down the shortage by two per cent provided this healthy trend continued for another week or so.

According to dam dropping criteria, the Indus River System Authority was earlier expecting the Tarbela lake to drop down to 1,530 feet by Sept 30 whereas it now hoped that the lake would only go down to 1,537 feet with the improved river flows. Similarly, it was expecting the Mangla lake at 1,190 feet, but the current flows could leave it at 1,195 feet. This 12 feet gap in both the dams could provide some relief to the water planners during the coming Rabi season, he said.

Owing to the current rainspell in the northern areas, the water flow has improved at Chashma barrage and provinces have reduced their indents from Tarbela. He hoped that the dam would recoup to certain extent in a few days.

Dilating upon the reasons for this shortfall, the irrigation department spokesman said, the country had lost around 28 per cent shortage capacity to silt in three storages —- Tarbela, Mangla and Chashma. They were designed for storing 15.2 million-acre-foot water, but their capacity has come down to just over 11maf. The loss of one-fourth capacity has left the country struggling even after a so-called wet year, he said, and added: “The loss will go up to 33 per cent in the next seven years, pushing the country towards a crisis.”

Since June 20, over 20maf water has gone down the Kotri barrage, which is double the quantity demanded by Sindh. The 10maf water loss could be converted into that of billions of rupees. The government had woke up to the issue of storage, he hoped, and might be able to take some decision.