August 14, 2003	Thursday	Jumadi-us-Sani 15, 1424

ISLAMABAD: Amid words and gestures of goodwill between bitter foes you could be forgiven for thinking lasting peace was about to break out between Pakistan and India.

If past efforts are anything to go by, you would be wrong.

While the nuclear-armed neighbours have come a long way from the brink of war last year, analysts and commentators share the concern that getting leaders to the negotiating table is the easy part, and even that is not guaranteed.

“As for the real actors, I don’t think they have changed their minds, especially the people sitting in government, the foreign office, in intelligence and the army,” said Ershad Mahmud, expert on India-Pakistan relations at the Institute of Policy Studies, Islamabad.

“I have seen many euphoric moments in recent history.”

There are things to smile about ahead of independence day festivities — Pakistan’s on Thursday and India’s on Friday.

Until October the countries had one million troops staring at each other across their border and relations were frozen.

Now lawmakers are swapping visits, ambassadors are in their missions, transport links are gradually being restored and leaders are calling for peace talks to begin.

President Pervez Musharraf made the latest move in the slow crawl to the negotiating table on Tuesday saying peace was possible across the disputed region, but only if India stopped human rights abuses first.

Indian Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee set the ball rolling earlier this year by saying he wanted to make his last bid for peace with Pakistan.

SOME OPTIMISM: “I think what we are witnessing is something of substance and it indicates a reappraisal of past attitudes, especially the entrenched positions on major issues like Kashmir,” said Tanvir Ahmed Khan, a former Pakistan foreign secretary.

“What we see is that both governments are encouraging a thaw in the public attitude.”

Confidence-building measures like the restoration of the suspended Lahore-Delhi bus link last month have bred goodwill across the subcontinent.

A two-year-old Pakistani girl who made the journey to have life-saving heart surgery in a Bangalore hospital was inundated with Indian gifts and offers of financial help.

In Srinagar, many are sceptical that years of bloodshed are about to end, but a few dare to hope.

“I am optimistic about the future relationship of the two countries,” said businessman F.A. Baigh.

Whether political leaders can follow up with concrete proposals and compromises is another matter.

Samina Yasmeen of the University of Western Australia said President Musharraf represented a more moderate movement inside Pakistan that was gaining ground on the anti-Indian old guard.

“But I think if we draw parallells with what happened in Agra, it is clear that short-term expressions of exuberance get taken over as soon as another group becomes ascendant,” she added, referring to 2001 peace talks that failed.

Both President Musharraf and Premier Vajpayee will also be reluctant to be the first to budge if substantive talks do begin.

The former is calling for rights abuses in occupied Kashmir to end and troop levels to be reduced and the latter wants Pakistan to halt the alleged flow of militants from its side of the territory.

“We have elections coming up, so BJP (Bharatiya Janata Party) is not going to be seen making any concessions to Pakistan at this point,” said Kamal Mitra Chenoy, who teaches international relations at New Delhi’s Jawaharlal Nehru University.

The Hindu nationalist BJP heads the federal coalition of two dozen parties in India and is bidding for re-election next year.

POTENTIAL HURDLES: Political intransigence aside, a myriad of other factors could end the stuttering peace process.

Anti-India Kashmiri freedom fighters are the biggest wild card that could severely test the patience of New Delhi, which has shown rare restraint in its reaction to recent attacks.

Militant leaders in Azad Kashmir say the number of Mujahideen crossing into occupied Kashmir has dropped in the last few days.

Deep-seated concerns in Pakistan over the conventional and nuclear arms imbalance in India’s favour could also block peace. Islamabad has reacted with alarm to Washington’s decision to allow Israel to sell an airborne early warning system to India.

If the sides are going to put their torrid 56-year past behind them and achieve what has so far proved unachievable, analysts agree that US pressure will be crucial.—Reuters