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DINA
DAWN - the Internet Edition


June 7, 2003 Saturday Rabi-us-Sani 6, 1424

DAWN Classified
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Editorial


State of the economy
The only sensible option
Saving the Polyclinic



State of the economy


PERHAPS for the first time in its history Pakistan’s economy has pulled off a near miracle and that too during a year when the world economy, by and large, has been in a stagnant or declining state. The latest Economic Survey of Pakistan (2002-03) very rightly observes that the country has very rarely witnessed so many of its macro indicators register significant improvements in a single year. For the first time in many years the growth rate has gone past the five per cent mark. At the same time, the fiscal space created by the massive Paris Club debt rescheduling concessions of December 2001 and significant write-offs of bilateral debts by many donors as well as by the substantial grants in the wake of 9/11, on the one hand, and the continued tight-fisted public sector expenditure policies, on the other, have made it possible for the country to achieve a level of macroeconomic stability which is considered essential for launching the recovery phase of the economy.

While all these welcome developments on the economic front is a matter of great satisfaction, their real value to the nation lies in their sustainability and their ability, over a reasonable period of time, to improve the quality of life of the poorer sections of the population. The authors of the Survey have, therefore, very rightly emphasized the need to build on the current gains using the strong foundation laid down during the outgoing year. They agree that the most important challenge facing the official economic managers today is to find ways and means to raise investment to sustain higher economic growth and reduce poverty at the same time by improving social indicators. In order to be able to move the country to a take-off stage, Pakistan’s economy needs to grow at the rate of seven to eight per cent per annum over a period of at least 10 years without break. But to grow at that rate we need an annual investment rate of at least about 21-22 per cent of the GDP. However, the investment rate is still averaging 15-16 per cent of the GDP — much lower than the average of the 1990s (19.5 per cent). This is happening because our savings rate continues to hover around 15-16 per cent. There is, thus, a clear gap of about 5-6 per cent in the saving rate that is desirable and the one which the country seems capable of achieving in the short run.

It is, therefore, essential that we strive for more foreign direct investment to bridge the gap between the desirable investment rate and what we could possibly achieve with the current rate of savings. But to be able to attract an increased flow of FDIs, we need to reform our legal system, improve law and order situation, minimize the regional tensions, and, above all, induce the domestic private sector to come out of its narrow protective shell and show enterprise and dynamism in a stable situation for which the government claims to have laid the foundations. Meanwhile, the government should initiate the right kind of social and physical infrastructure projects so that there are enough trained skills and adequate power, water, roads, bridges, ports, etc, to be able to absorb the desired increases in investments rates. At the same time, it is the responsibility of the government to design suitable social safety nets for those poorer sections who are otherwise likely to be bypassed by the trickle-down effect of high growth rates.

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The only sensible option


THE Pakistan-India Permanent Indus Commission (PIC), which met in New Delhi last week, failed to resolve the dispute arising out of India’s controversial construction of a hydroelectric power plant at Baglihar on its side of the Chenab river. The meeting ended with the Indian side requesting the Pakistanis to withdraw the demand to call in neutral experts to adjudicate between them. The Indus Waters Treaty of 1960 apportioning the waters of the Indus river system between the two countries provides for calling in third-party neutral experts in case the two sides cannot bilaterally resolve a particular issue of contention. Under the historic treaty brokered by the World Bank, India has exclusive rights over the waters flowing through the river system’s eastern tributaries comprising the Ravi, Sutlej and the Beas rivers, while Pakistan enjoys similar rights over the western tributaries — the Chenab, Jhelum and the Indus.

The PIC is a technical body comprising civil engineers from the two countries which meets annually to discuss matters pertaining to the flow of water through the Indus river system. Its composition was deliberately so kept as to avoid political acrimony between the two sides. The current dispute arose in 1999, with the Pakistani members of the PIC saying India’s on-going Baglihar project violates the Indus Waters Treaty. Work on the project has continued unabated despite repeated requests made by Pakistan to stop it. Finally, last year Islamabad proposed calling in neutral experts from Britain and Canada so that the dispute could be resolved amicably and in accordance with the provisions of the 1960 treaty, which offers an equitable water-sharing formula. But it seems that the recent low ebb in relations between the two countries has inevitably had its effects on the attitudes and perceptions at the PIC level too, though it is purely a technical body. Thus, Pakistan’s suggestion that the two countries abide strictly by the provisions of the treaty and call in neutral experts makes good sense and deserves to be considered in all seriousness — if the purpose is to resolve the matter equitably without risking to politicize it any further and adding to the number of disputes that continue to be the bane of bilateral relations.

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Saving the Polyclinic


THE Federal Government Services Hospital in Islamabad, better known as Polyclinic, is in danger of being permanently de-accredited by the College of Physicians and Surgeons, Pakistan (CPSP), if it does not mend matters soon. If this happens, it will no longer be a teaching hospital. The hospital’s teaching status had been temporarily suspended by CPSP because of deficiency in the facilities for training doctors — lack of library facilities, lecture hall, internet and regular teaching programmes, including daily morning rounds, morning meetings and case presentation classes. The CPSP has already terminated the teaching status of the hospital’s ophthalmology department. It will be a shame if Polyclinic loses its teaching status for good as this would mean one government hospital less in the twin cities where trainee doctors can work. For Islamabad, this would leave the Pakistan Institute of Medical Sciences (PIMS) as the only government hospital with a teaching status.

Surely it is the responsibility of the health authorities to ensure that the hospitals which are under its jurisdiction are up to the mark in all respects, whether it is a question of providing service to patients or helping to train new doctors for the country. The health ministry should ensure that the necessary funds, expertise and facilities are available. It is unfortunate that instead of the authorities being concerned about the fate and future of the Polyclinic, it is individual doctors who have been trying to save the hospital’s teaching status by getting donations from philanthropists. These donations have helped the hospital obtain several computers and an internet facility, and get some medical books and journals for the library. But it is obvious that this is not enough. The eventual fate of the hospital lies in the hands of the health authorities.

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