May 14, 2003	Wednesday	Rabi-ul-Awwal 11, 1424

TEHRAN: Jolted by the swift collapse of Saddam Hussein’s regime in Iraq, the hardline clerics who rule Iran have been cracking down on dissent at home and talking discreetly to US diplomats abroad in an effort to stave off American pressure.

With US troops and military bases now virtually surrounding Iran, the conservative leaders have broken an old taboo by talking to their arch-enemy in an attempt to buy some breathing room and pre-empt possible US military action.

Although the two countries have not had diplomatic relations since the US-backed Shah was overthrown in 1979, officials on both sides have acknowledged a series of contacts between Washington and Tehran in recent months.

The US secretary of state, Colin Powell, said over the weekend that a resumption of diplomatic relations was not on the table, but added that the governments were speaking “in light of the changed strategic situation”.

The new “situation” has put Iran in a vice. In the past 18 months, the US military machine has toppled two regimes on Iran’s borders, Afghanistan and Iraq, with relative ease.

As Washington turns its attention to Iran’s nuclear programme, the conservative establishment in Tehran is clearly rattled.

After the fall of Baghdad last month, the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, sounded frustrated that Iraqi troops had failed to put up more resistance against US forces, calling their surrender “an eternal disgrace”

One former member of the establishment, who has become its most prominent critic, dared to say in public what many reformists were saying privately. Ayatollah Hosein Ali Montazeri said the clerical leadership could face the same fate as Saddam if it continued its autocratic ways. “On this solemn and dangerous occasion, I warn leaders and officials of the Islamic republic to learn from the sad experience of the Iraqi dictator and hear the cry of the Iranian people for justice and democracy,” he said.

The hardliners, who have blocked attempts at reform by President Mohammad Khatami and his allies in parliament, have drawn a different lesson from the Iraq conflict. Citing the US threat, they are moving against their political opponents and restricting public debate.

Proposals from President Khatami to end the obstruction of parliament and halt political trials have been stalled and then vetoed.

In recent weeks the judiciary and security services have targeted independent journalists who turned to the internet after their newspapers were shut down, subjecting them to detention without trial and interrogation.

The hardliners have handpicked ultra-conservatives to serve in key positions in the judiciary and in Tehran’s city government.

Last week, officials announced plans to restrict access to “unethical” websites. There are now fears that the authorities will move against the country’s award-winning film industry following the detention of several film critics and screen writers.

Earlier this month, Ayatollah Khamenei’s representative in the militant Revolutionary Guard put MPs on notice that their comments would be “monitored” to safeguard national security, a clear message aimed at intimidating reformists, who form a majority in parliament.

In the past, reformist MPs have threatened to resign if the hardliners in the Guardian Council and the judiciary continue to veto legislation and punish dissidents. But they now run the risk of being accused of imperilling national security and playing into the hands of the “enemy” next door in Iraq.

While piling pressure on their domestic critics, the most conservative elements in the leadership have been calling on Shias in Iraq to resist the US-led occupation.

Ahmad Jannati, a leading cleric, told worshippers at Friday prayers this month: “Iraqis will eventually reach the conclusion that the only way to oust Americans is an intifada. The Iraqi people should remain united and follow their religious leaders to oust the enemy and lead their own country.”

In the battle for the sympathies of Iraqis, Iran’s most effective move has been the launch of an Arabic news channel, which is beamed over the border. Al-Alam, or the World, has won a large Iraqi audience with its portrayal of US and British troops as occupiers who are not to be trusted.

By promoting militant Shia politics in Iraq, the hardliners hope to make life difficult for the Americans and force them to withdraw. But the extent of Iran’s influence in Iraq remains unclear.

Tehran has pinned its hopes on a group of Shia exiles it has sponsored for the past 20 years, the Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq, but not all Shia clergy in Iraq favour an Iranian-style theocracy.

In the Iranian holy city of Qom, many Iraqi students say they are preparing to leave the seminaries and return home. They say they want to revive the Iraqi holy city of Najaf as a theological centre, undermining Iran’s status as the centre for Shia theology.

If Iraq moves eventually towards a pluralistic system, hardliners fear it could become a platform for the Iranian opposition and critical media banned inside Iran.

However, the most serious threat in a post-Saddam world may come from Iraq’s dormant oil fields, which are already attracting the interest of foreign oil companies.

Iran relies on its oil income to keep the economy afloat and to subsidise prices. The revival of Iraq’s oil industry could eventually drive down oil prices, possibly triggering a social crisis in a country where unemployment is already a concern.—Dawn/The Guardian News Service.