The power generation and transmission activities are almost stagnant for quite some time and there has been lacklustre growth both in power generation and load demand. Great hustle and bustle was seen way back in the 60’s and 70’s and to a lesser extent in the 80’s in the country, which died down a great lot in the last decade.

Generation and transmission capacity additions are almost negligible. There are no planned power cuts, thanks to the declining load demand, otherwise the country would have been in dark. The IPPs have come to the rescue and are a blessing in disguise in spite of alleged kickbacks and fat profits they made. Without the IPPs, the country would have experienced untold load shedding especially in view of the continued drought conditions in water reservoirs and rivers. The hydro to thermal generation ratio which once stood at comfortable ratio of 60:40 is 40:60 at present.

The IPPs were instrumental in the control of load shedding by coming into operation in a very short time, which could not have been possible through public sector. The loss to the overall national economy would have been far greater and colossal without the IPPs in spite of all their alleged misdeeds and higher cost. For progress and prosperity corruption, perhaps, is necessary.

However, we should not be complacent that load shedding is not being resorted to. It should be borne in mind that on account of industrial slowdown and continuous economic inactivity, the load demand has been less than the installed generating capacity in the country. If the load growth had been around 10 per cent which is usual for a developing country like ours and which was the case till mid-eighties, the country would have been in dark because of negative power generation.

Additions to the generation have not been made at a regular rate. Imagine the scenario when the industrial, commercial and agricultural activities become normal and the economy takes off with electricity demand of 10 per cent or more annually. Certainly the generation will not meet the demand and extensive load shedding will have to be resorted to.

The problems facing the nation are many folds. It is not merely the generating capacity or transmission lines that are needed but the cost at which these will be available. Already, the power rates are the highest in our poor country, thanks to the policies of economic managers and gurus ruling the country. There is no way to get lower tariffs in the short and medium term.

We must suffer and be prepared to pay through the nose. We can boast of paying the highest cost of electricity while earning the lowest wages. This is what ultimately the aid giving agencies want of us. Our leaders and managers are happily toeing their lines by adopting market-based philosophies, globalization and privatization. Experience has shown that electricity prices will shoot up further after the intended privatisation of the power sector.

The question arises if there are remedies. The answer is simply “No” at least in the short and medium run if not in the long run. As long as the bulk of the needed power is generated by burning the costly imported fuel, things will remain as they are, rather the situation will get worse for the consumers. Exports will diminish because of higher input energy costs. The remedy lies in putting up hydropower generation on a large scale to offset the costly thermal power.

But this cannot be done overnight. Even the ongoing projects like Basha Dam would take another ten to fifteen years if its feasibility studies currently in progress are carried forward to tendering and construction. Ghalib’s verse “Kon jita hai teri zulf ke sar hone tak” perhaps was written for our present state of helplessness and uncertainty. Nevertheless hydro projects big or small need to be implemented without delay to see a ray of light at the end of a long dark tunnel.

We have neglected coal-fired power projects for long. All the indigenous coal resources should be exploited and turned into electric power to get cheaper power compared to costly furnace oil-fired stations. Development of Thar coal reserves with the help of China is in the right direction.

The nation also needs to look beyond the orthodox conventional form of energy and techniques prevalent in our society. We are known for not taking timely actions. Look at the late introduction of computers that put the country 20 years behind developing countries of the region. Why are we not exploiting the solar power potential so abundant with us? Red tapism or vested interest or lack of understanding and knowledge or all of these? We must put up solar plants and factories to manufacture solar cells locally. Internationally renowned scientists and technologists of Pakistani origin settled abroad are willing and trying to put up joint ventures in solar technology in Pakistan for the last many years but have not been encouraged.

A way of improving power situation is to follow the concept of “dispersed power”. The people should be encouraged to put up private mini plants comprising micro-turbines and diesels at different points in the power system and connect to Wapda or the KESC system for export in times of excess power. Even these entities be allowed to sell power direct to the consumers for a healthy competition which will result in better service to consumers.

As regards power thefts, greater efforts are required by the nationalised power organisations to control the leakages. One good way of controlling thefts in the rural areas is to form cooperative societies in which the consumers should be the shareholders. They will see that the power is not stolen by anyone once they feel they own the entity. The government should advance loans to these cooperatives in the beginning. Each distribution section or even each 11 kv and 400 volts feeders be metered and the consumption compared with the total units billed.

The technical losses can be computed and the unaccounted units of energy should be debited to the responsible distribution staff. Only enforcement of the strict accountability can control the losses and theft. All the pole mounted meters should be immediately shifted and installed in the consumers premises so that consumers can be held responsible if the meters are tampered with or power is stolen. At the moment, the power thieves can not be brought to justice legally. It is almost impossible to prove the thefts on technical and legal grounds.

The present management of Wapda has introduced many discipline measures which can be termed as administrative improvement. However, the neglect has been and continues to be the lack of technical improvement in our distributing system. The quality and continuity of Wapda service depends on the quality of workmanship of line work and staff skills besides provision of adequate spares and tools and plants.

The continuity and reliability of the service depends on adhering to the standards while constructing the distribution lines, correct placement of pole mounted transformers along with their fuse gear and making proper joints and connections of house service wires and cables in accordance with the international standard practices. It is the poor workmanship of line staff and lack of engineering supervision that results in poor consumer services. Wapda needs to pay attention to the technical problems in order to ensure a satisfactory service to its consumers while at the same time assuring the reduction in avoidable line losses being bracketed with overall technical losses at the moment. According to one estimate, such avoidable losses account as much as 2 per cent of the total billed energy! This translates to a concurrent financial loss of approximately Rs3 billion for the lost energy in the poor joints (connections, clamps etc.).

The prose and cons of ultimate privatisation need to be worked out and measured before hand. We should be aware of the pitfalls of the privatisation and should learn from the experience of others. Our decisions should be made in keeping with peculiar local conditions and should not be based on mere imported slogans or hearsay.

The idea of imported privatisation slogan of our power industry is to make the electricity price the highest in the world (already it is!) while the average income per capita remains the lowest. We need to guard against it and try to reverse this tendency. It is a great challenge. Can we do it? Certainly yes, with competent and dedicated managers, technical hands, clear thinking economists and of course with sincere and shrewd political leadership.

All the alternative scenarios other than the re-structuring and privatizations of power companies and organisations need to be evaluated with and without the re-structuring and privatisation should be compared.The harmful dictates of donor agencies should be resisted.

Transition from one monopoly to another will not serve either the consumers or ultimately the state. It may, however, serve the interest of the new monopolies.

The break-up of Wapda into fully privatized generation and distribution companies would result in following:

* No centralised planning can be made; no investment planning can be made; new generation can not be added where required; new transmission/distribution lines and grids can not be built for system expansion and augmentation; lack of government investment during the transition period would worsen the power scenario; will result in greater load shedding, power cuts and poorer reliability, and above all consumers will pay at much higher tariffs.

In Australia, electricity prices shot up by 100 per cent with reduced reliability and quality after the restructuring and privatisation of power sector and prices had to be capped. Furthermore, negative generation is feared in the coming years as a result of non-investment in the generation projects by the new owners. Untold problems were faced in California (USA), by the consumers in the shape of confronting long power cuts and occasional price hikes after the privatization. Let us learn from other’s experience and not repeat similar mistakes as our already weak economy may not be able to sustain the resulting shocks.

The performance of the distribution wings of Wapda and the KESC can be improved by taking following measures:

* enforce accountability; reorganise distribution wing of Wapda into smaller manageable companies to be run on commercial basis but remaining under the umbrella of one centralised organisation; control technical losses and thefts. Hire experts or experienced consultants to assist in enforcing standards in consumers service connections, meter installation and billing; shift and install all meters inside consumers premises; improve efficiency; reward the deserving and punish the inefficient.