March 23, 2003	Sunday	Muharram 19, 1424

ISTANBUL: As the war on Iraq begins, how much of it is over control of petroleum resources, rather than weapons of mass destruction and regime change?

It may be more than publicly known.

Whoever controls Iraq will have the world’s second largest known oil reserves. It is a high-stakes game for the US, France, Russia and even Turkey and the Kurdish minority in Iraq.

The US, with both President George W. Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney well versed in the oil business, barely referred to the petroleum factor. British Foreign Secretary Jack Straw also brushed aside oil as a motive, saying that if the primary concern had been over oil, one could have made an oil deal with Iraqi President Saddam Hussein.

Some did not mince words, however.

Former South African President Nelson Mandela portrayed the war as being over control of Iraq’s oil, reflecting the view often expressed by the Iraqi leadership and also in the minds of many around the world.

And, France and Russia abstained from making oil a major issue in their opposition to the US-led strike on Iraq. But observers cannot fail but note that they have vital interest in the status quo — and could end up as the principal losers in a regime change.

Italian analyst Alberto Negri sees the war on Iraq as “a treasure hunt” for untold billions of dollars of oil reserves. Taha Ahmed Moussa, former Iraqi Vice Minister for oil, told the Italian media that when all regions of the country are explored, Iraq will have more than 300 billions of barrels, a quarter of the world’s reserves and equal to that of Saudi Arabia.

As assessed by oil experts, including official US energy sources, Iraq has proven reserves of 112 barrels, but also a possible hidden treasure of 100 to 150 billion more. And what is more, it is good oil and costs less to extract. Iraq’s National Oil Company estimated the cost of extraction at a mere 70 cents a barrel, compared to at least 8 dollars a barrel in the Caspian Sea area.

Since 1996 the control of Iraqi oil effectively lies with the UN under the “oil-for-food” programme with the bulk of both oil and food involving Russian companies. French companies have always had interest in Iraqi oil regardless of its regime.

What next after the regime change? “Contracts signed in line with UN regulations will perhaps be respected to maintain a facade of international legality,” noted Italian Middle East analyst Negri. “But certainly American petroleum and other industrial companies will put their hands on the energy resources and reconstruction of Iraq.”

He estimates that at least five billion dollars would be needed to update petroleum infrastructure ands another 40 to 50 billion dollars to bring it to 6 million barrels a day within five to six years. Current production is put at 1,25 million barrels a day.

A study by US Rice University and the Council on Foreign Relations, overseen by former US Secretary of State James Baker, says one of the biggest tasks of the United States in the post- Saddam era would be to show that it does intend to control Iraq’s oil.

Iraq’s oil is also being eyed by neighbouring Turkey and Iraqi Kurds, now both allied with the United States but often suspicious of each other.

The Kurds, in public statements, deny any move against oilfields in Mosul and Kirkuk, claiming the country’s entire oil wealth is a patrimony of all Iraqi population. But some Kurdish leaders also profess implicit interest in the oil fields, a part of their dream of an independent Kurdistan with oil wealth.

Even the thought of such a scenario has Turkey worried. The Turkish government has acknowledged that it has its own undisclosed scenario if the Kurds make a rush for oilfields, suggesting a casus belli (reason for war).

So far, both Turkey and the Kurds appear satisfied to let the US control the oilfields. Turkey has reasons of its own to be concerned over the oil-rich areas of northern Iraq, home also to a Turkish minority that fears being crushed between the Arabs and the Kurds. And the oilfields in northern Iraq bring back painful memories for Turkey. The Turkish Ottoman Empire had the area under its fold as it collapsed after World War One, and control slipped to colonial Britain.

Modern Turkey’s claimed it back, but Britain stood firm, offering Turkey 10 per cent interest in revenues for 25 years beginning in 1926. But, in a move that still baffles Turks, their country settled for a 500,000 pound payment to renounce its rights.

It may have been the most short-sighted lump-sum settlement ever.—Dawn/The InterPress News Service