March 8, 2003	Saturday	Muharram 4, 1424

MOSCOW: For months now, the White House has been trying to play the Russia card.

But Russia refuses to be played.

Administration officials regarded the Kremlin as the key to persuading the UN Security Council to endorse military action against Iraq, and privately predicted that Russia would in the end rally to the United States’ side.

But President Vladimir V. Putin has joined France and Germany in their opposition to the use of force. Despite high-level lobbying — including phone calls President Bush — Putin has maintained that position for two weeks.

“Obviously, the picture has become a little darker with every passing day,” a senior US diplomat said on Thursday, requesting anonymity. The Bush administration still hopes Russia can be persuaded to support it. US Secretary of State Colin L. Powell and Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov are still expected to discuss the issue after UN weapons inspectors present their latest report, and national security adviser Condoleezza Rice, an expert on Russia, may travel to Moscow in the next few days.

But no one is confidently predicting Russian support anymore. “I certainly don’t think they’ve made a decision to veto,” the US diplomat said. “But people are much more uncertain as to the Russians’ ultimate destination then they were a few weeks ago.”

So far, France rather than Russia has borne most of the administration’s criticism for failing to support the use of force, but that could soon change. “This is not a small issue that can be fenced off,” the diplomat warned. “This is central to our relationship. A veto would inherently damage our relationship.”

A split over Iraq could complicate efforts to defuse the nuclear crisis in North Korea, mediate between Israel and the Palestinians and broker other conflicts. In counting on Russia for so long, the White House appears to have made a few miscalculations.

It was thought Putin would endorse the use of force against Iraq rather than, in the White House’s view, risk undermining the authority of the Security Council, where Russia holds a veto. He was also expected to be swayed by the opportunity for Russia to participate in any postwar reconstruction of Iraq, including development of Iraqi oil fields. Iraq owes Moscow $8 billion, for equipment and loans secured during the Soviet era.

In arguing against an attack on Iraq, France, Russia and Germany have cited moral concerns about waging war but have also wanted to hold the world’s sole superpower in check — a matter also of concern to Russia.

“The fact that the United States dominates the world is setting teeth on edge,” said Rustam Orudzhayev of the Moscow- based Science and Politics Foundation.

“The crux of the problem is the United States is too powerful, too uncontrolled,” said Viktor V. Kremenyuk, deputy director of Russia’s Institute of USA and Canada Studies. “The United States thinks it has the moral and legal right to judge other nations and decide what to do with them.”

Many educated Russians complain that Russia received nothing in return for closing bases in Cuba and Vietnam and for letting the Bush administration abandon the anti-ballistic missile treaty. They point out their government did not protest the expansion of NATO to Russia’s borders and silently accepted deployment of American troops in former Soviet republics in Central Asia and Georgia.

After an amicable summit between Putin and Bush in Moscow and St. Petersburg last May, many hoped that US markets would open to Russian steel and uranium — which didn’t happen.

“Mr Putin felt that he was used,” said Kremenyuk. “And he doesn’t wish to be used. Now I think he is inclined to think seriously about the partnership with Mr Bush.”

While criticizing Bush’s policies, Putin has praised him as a friend. Last month he said he approved of the American military presence in the Persian Gulf, saying that without it the disarmament process would not have made as much progress.

If he is in a cynical mood, Putin has a strong motive for prolonging the current tensions.

High oil prices in recent years have been the single most important factor in Russia’s economic recovery, and 40 per cent of government revenues are tied to oil profits. Tensions over Iraq have driven the price of oil to $32-a-barrel levels. If the threat of war ebbs, those prices could drop again — perhaps by 30 per cent.

Putin may also be looking to closer ties with Western Europe. Germany is Russia’s most important trading partner, and France maintains close cultural ties.

“Europe is our partner,” said Orudzhayev of the Science and Politics Foundation. “For Russia, it brings more benefits to play on their side — though keeping the United States in mind.”—Dawn/The Los Angeles Times-Washington Post News Service (c) The Baltimore Sun.