January 30, 2003	Thursday	Ziqa’ad 26,1423

ANKARA: Turkey’s new government views with unease a looming war in Iraq that could shake the pillars of its power, leaving it vulnerable to challenge by militant secularists suspicious of its Islamist roots.

The Justice and Development Party (AKP) swept to power three months ago, crushing establishment parties blighted by rivalries and corruption. Financial markets and foreign partners welcomed the emergence of a strong one-party government tackling domestic reform and sensitive international problems such as Cyprus.

But only the naive could have expected hardliners in the state apparatus, army, judiciary and business to warm to a party led by a man, Tayyip Erdogan, once jailed for sedition.

The generals, however, broke silence more quickly than most expected this month when Chief of General Staff general Hilmi Ozkok upbraided Prime Minister Abdullah Gul for expressing reservations about expulsion of officers suspected of Islamist leanings. Ozkok said Gul had encouraged militancy.

Hackles also rose at the sight of officials accompanied by wives wearing headscarves — seen as a challenge to secularism when worn at state occasions. There are places where AKP’s rejection of political Islam and its embrace of liberal, pro-western policies cut no ice.

“The AKP is not a threat to anyone,” said Fehmi Koru, a journalist close to Erdogan. “AKP wants to work with everyone and...respect the regime, with some reforms towards democracy.”

In Turkey there flourishes still the concept of a stern father state above the fray of politics, intervening unseen to “guide” democracy when it errs. The “Deep State” — a coalition of militants in the military, academia, the media, the judiciary and officialdom — has no offices, no entry in the telephone directory, but some politicians swear they feel its touch.

Bilkent University professor Hasan Unal, no admirer of the AKP, cites the headscarf issue and Gul’s brush with the army as “provocations”. Worse still, he says, is an impression AKP may abandon “Turkish interests” on the Mediterranean island of Cyprus in embracing a United Nations reunification plan.

FOUR PILLARS OF POWER: Many Western diplomats sense in AKP’s pursuit of a Cyprus deal a fresh breeze in Turkish foreign policy. Some hardliners fear a betrayal of national strategic interests, under European Union pressure, that may submit the island to Greek domination.

“The Chief of Staff came out and criticized the government very clearly in public and this is very serious,” Unal said. “In these circumstances, the army is probably more than concerned.”

The army traditionally exerts a decisive influence over a weak and fractious political establishment. In the last 40 years it has carried out three coups, citing threats to democracy.

Six years ago it spearheaded a pressure campaign of media, business and judiciary that felled Turkey’s first religious government. One general famously called it the “fine tuning of democracy”. An example, for some, of the Deep State in action.

Party chief Erdogan, barred from office because of his 1990s sedition conviction, has his problems with the judiciary.

Legal changes may allow him to enter parliament in a March by-election and take over the premiership from Gul. But the electoral board could yet block him on technical grounds.

Gul and Erdogan are close and “tandem power” works for now. But Turkey could face confusion and the AKP could be weakened if war produced friction. The power issue should be solved quickly to smooth relations with the generals and the outside world.

The power of the AKP rests on four pillars — support of the public, of business, media and the United States’ endorsement.

ECONOMY THE KEY: Gul knows war in neighbouring Iraq could hit AKP popularity. At the risk of angering a key ally, he hesitates over granting passage and use of bases to US forces, but seems unlikely to refuse US requests outright. He needs America.

He plays a delicate game. If the US Congress feels Ankara has been less than forthcoming, Turkey might find the financial “compensation” package it seeks to shield its crisis-hit economy against the storms of war falls short of requirements.

A decision on US forces is expected within a week.

“If I were AKP I’d cooperate with the Americans,” said commentator Mehmet Ali Birand.

The economy presents the greatest vulnerability for a party elected to ease the social suffering of two financial crises.

All of these, war could make more elusive.—Reuters