January 7, 2003	Tuesday	Ziqa’ad 3, 1423

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MULTAN, Jan 6: The latest cotton arrival figures released by the Pakistan Cotton Ginners Association (PCGA) have sparked a debate over the expected crop size at the end of the season.

According to the PCGA, uptill now 8.73 million bales have been arrived at 804 operational ginneries across the country as compared to 7.8 million bales of the corresponding period last year, showing an increase of 11.25 per cent.

But the question bothering the cotton market analysts is whether this year’s production figures would maintain the upward trend against the corresponding arrival figures of the last year even till the season end.

Another point which has become a permanent source of controversy is the average bale weight. Officially, the average bale weight is 170kg, but on ground it varies every year. For instance during the last two years the average bale weight was approximately 162kg. Though it has improved slightly to 166kg, it is yet 4kg under the official bale weight.

If one calculates the latest cotton arrival figures on the basis of average bale weight of 170kg, then the total cotton arrived at ginneries by Jan 1 should be read as 8.54 million bales instead of what being projected as 8.73 million bales.

A cotton market analyst said that last year prices of phutti (cotton seed) were much low as compared to this year. Therefore, the growers had withheld the phutti supply during the middle of the season speculating better bargain prices at the season’s fag-end. But, farmers’ strategy did not work and finally they had to sell the produce offered by the buyers.

This year, he said, phutti was fetching a reasonably good price owing to the forecast of global low production of cotton. “It is for the first time that the growers are getting almost the international parity price against the cotton produce in the local market”, he said.

Therefore the farming community had no reason to withhold its cotton stocks this year, he said. “Phutti has gone straightaway to ginneries from the fields,” he said, claiming “there left a negligible quantity of cotton that has yet to arrive at the ginneries.”

As per the official record, this year cotton acreage was 11 per cent less in the Punjab as compared to the previous year. However, unofficial experts said the reduction in cotton acreage was more than admitted by the Agriculture department. While the resurgence of economically pernicious cotton leaf curl virus in length and breadth of cotton belt in the Punjab would have certainly taken its toll.

The All-Pakistan Textile Mills Association has put its annual demand of 11.5 million cotton bales. Last year, PCGA figures put the country’s cotton production at 10.1 million bales (average bale weight of 162kg) while Aptma had reportedly imported 1.4 million bales.

The official cotton crop estimate is about 10.2 million bales of 170kg each for the current season. It means that some 1.7 million cotton bales have yet to reach the ginneries to meet the estimate calculated by the standing committee on cotton crop assessment of the Pakistan Central Cotton Committee. But the market analysts here are not convinced that the official estimate will be met.