| January 6, 2003 | Monday | Ziqa’ad 2, 1423 |
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Making Sindh a peaceful province
American foreign policy
How does PTCL work?
Nadra’s reply to applicants
PTV’s promotion of tobacco
‘Deeper into the communal trap’
INS issue: an Indian’s view
Extraordinary picture
Welcome Dr Afghan
Snail’s pace of CSS results
Dr A. Q. Khan and IBS
Economic writers have, by and large, developed the consensus that the events of September 11, 2001 have benefited Pakistan’s economy to a great extent with particular reference to the macro-economic stability in the external sector.
The government has, however, been advocating that the current macroeconomic stability is the result of the policies pursued by it since 1999 and that the September 11/2001 events have rather hurt the economy. Its point of view in this regard is contained in the latest article contributed by Dr. Ashfaque H. Khan, advisor in the Ministry of Finance, in this paper dated Dec.16,2002 under the above caption, wherein he has concluded that September 11/ 2001 events had seriously affected the national economy because the country, inter-alia, lost $1 billion in exports, $600 million in imports while the decline in imports affected the industrial production.
This interpretation is not factually correct. Exports did not suffer as per the data published on p-155 in the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) annual report for the fiscal year 2001-02 (FY 02) according to which exports during FY 02 fetched $8.9 billion as compared to $8.2 billion of the previous fiscal. The perception of loss in exports during FY 02 (i.e. in the aftermath of 9/11 events) appears to be based on the export target of $10 billion fixed for that fiscal year. As every body is aware $10 billion export target was continuously fixed for past many years but was never achieved.
Thus Dr Khan’s assertion of loss in exports is not well-founded. By the grace of God, the said target will hopefully be achieved/ surpassed during the current fiscal year. As for imports, he, in an article published in Dawn EBR (Aug. 5—11.2002), had mentioned that there had been a saving of $228 million due to non-import of sugar and of $559 million on account of 13 per cent fall in the oil prices; these two items total to $ 787 million. In the face of his own assertions, how has he now taken the plea that reduction in imports had hampered industrial production is beyond comprehension. In his article, Dr. Khan had rebuked the critics saying that “was self-sufficiency in sugar a bad thing?”
In the wake of 9/11 events the SBP quarterly/annual reports concerning FY 02 talked of reversal of capital flight. Dr Khan in his current article indicates that receipts upto $3.5 billion per annum are genuine remittances from overseas Pakistanis which prior to September,2001 were partly channelised through foreign currency accounts/kerb market and hence the SBP’s purchases from Kerb market are in fact mopping up of the remittances made through the herb market. In the scenario, remittances exceeding the above limit of $3.5 billion can only be termed as reversal of capital flight. The position of workers’ remittances received through banking channel/SBP’s purchases from the herb market as contained in SBP’s annual report for FY 02 (Table 9.1 -page 155) are as under:
Fifugres in millions$
Year Workers’ Kerb Total
1998-99 1060 531 1591
1999-2000 983 1634 2617
2000-01 1087 2157 3244
2001-02 2389 1376 3765
In all these years, the workers’ remittances coupled with kerb market purchases were either less than $ 3.5 billion or hovered round that figure. Then where is the question of reversal of capital flight? It is widely believed that the Pakistani politicians/businessmen/bureaucrats are holding overseas $90-100 billion. Had even 10 per cent of that amount found its way to Pakistan, it would have been logical to claim that reversal of capital flight had in fact taken place.
The claim for reduction of $2 billion in the external debt since October, 1999 also does not seem correct as it has risen from $ 31.285 billion (30-6-1999) to $ 33.4 billion (30-6-2002) as is evident from Table 8.7 to the SBP annual report for FY 02 (page 140). The reduction of the like amount has in fact occurred in foreign exchange liabilities e.g. foreign currency accounts / special US dollar bonds/NBP and the Bank of China deposits with the SBP etc. The aggregate of foreign currency debt and liabilities remains almost the same e.g. $36.6 billion (30-6-1999)/$36.532 billion (30-6-2002).
The amounts of foreign currency accounts/dollar bonds are being reduced either by encashment on maturity (fixed deposits and bonds) or by premature conversion in rupees in view of fall in income thereon because of downward change in $-rupee parity both in the inter-bank and kerb markets (due to elimination of premium in the kerb market which mainly owes its origin to the measures initiated by the governments in the USA and the Middle East against the herb market operators) and the reduction in $ interest rates.
The perception that the 9/11 events benefited the economy does not seem without reason in the context of larger inflows from abroad on account of (a) export proceeds as the exports have rather increased and not decreased as contended by Mr Khan, (b) workers’ remittances, (c) official grants from the USA and Japan [about $1 billion}, (d) receipts from the US government of the charges for providing services to the Afghan-bound American troops and airports for use by the Americans, (e) disbursements by the multilaterals under their loans which resumed after lifting of the ban which was imposed immediately following our May, 1998 detonations and savings ($ 1 billion annually) on account of reprofiling of Paris Club debts.
If the beneficial effect on external sector was not owing to the 9/11 events (which. occurred during FY 02) why the appreciable improvements were not visible during the previous fiscal years 1999-2000 (FY 00) and 2000-01 (FY 01). That the fiscal years FY 00 and FY 01 do not tell the success story is also evident from the remarks contained in SBP annual report for FY 01(page 133) which reads: “If one were to compare FY 99 and FY 01 current account deficits, by excluding the role of outright purchases and Saudi Oil Facility, the external gap only narrows from $2,776 million in FY 99 to $ 2,509 million in FY 01”.
What do these remarks convey, particularly in the context of the fact that current account deficit was converted into sizable surplus in FY 02 despite the fact that $ purchases from the kerb market were much curtailed during that year as compared to the previous two years. Dr. Khan’s current article partially admits that 9/11 events proved beneficial to the country’s external sector when he opines that “it is only in 2001-02 that this trend of negative net flows reversed and Pakistan received positive net capital flows of $ 306 million.”
A.M.TALHA
Karachi
THE MQM’s struggle for its rights has finally yielded positive results, as a Muttahida nominee, Dr Ishratul Ibad, has taken the oath of the governor of Sindh and the provincial cabinet includes some ministers from the party.
We welcome the new governor and hope that he will take the necessary steps to make Sindh a peaceful province where people from various ethnic groups will be able to live in complete harmony. We are also hopeful that he will make efforts to revert Karachi to its old status of the “city of lights” by maintaining law and order and reviving economic activities in the city.
The Muttahida Qaumi Movement went through very serious crises in the 90s when it had to fight hard to survive against all the odds and represent the interests of the middle and lower-middle classes in the assemblies of the country.
We saw that it was very tough for President Gen Pervez Musharraf to appoint an MQM nominee governor of Sindh as all major political parties were against this appointment.
The MQM is now carrying a lot of responsibilities on its shoulders. It is now the responsibility of the party to prove that it really cares about the rights of the poor and the downtrodden. It will also have to take up the case of Sindh with the federal government.
We hope that Dr Ibad will take all opposition parties, including the Mohajir Qaumi Movement, into confidence to solve the problems of the province. We wish him all the best.
SYED HAMID AKHTAR BARI
Canada
It should be noted that it was because of this culture of extortion that most businessmen said goodbye to Karachi and established their business concerns either in other cities of Pakistan or in foreign countries in the last 15 years. Many people are also said to have been killed over extortion of money in the province, specially in Karachi and Hyderabad.
Apart from a political party which has been sustaining itself with extortion money, the police, too, extort money by illegally detaining innocent people and by harassing motorists. Many policemen are seen extorting money from vendors on roads and in bazaars.
Thus, the promulgation of this law was the need of the hour and will hopefully bring the extortion culture to an end. It will also encourage businessmen in and outside Karachi to invest their capital with some peace of mind.
As we are well aware that ordinances are cranked out every now and then in the country but they are seldom enforced in letter and in spirit, the governor must ensure that the ordinance is implemented strictly.
WAJIH
Karachi
I would not go as far as Shamim Mirza did in his letter in supporting an American attack on Iraq for the simple reason that the war will bring widespread devastation and death to the hapless people of that country.
However, I totally concur with his description of Saddam Hussein as a ruthless dictator who attacked two Muslim countries and caused the death of over two million innocent people.
The propensity of the Pakistani people to side with the Muslims of other countries in the name of Islamic solidarity, no matter how heinous the record of some of the regimes might have been, is truly regrettable and unwise.
The prime example of this unfortunate tendency was the support extended to the repressive and brutal Taliban in many political and public quarters. In the case of Saddam Hussein, there is scant justification for this solidarity even in the name of religion because as everyone knows, he, before the Kuwait war, had little use for Islam. To be able to criticize the shortcomings and follies of our own kind when deserved, is necessary for our evolution into a more civilized society.
M. HAIDER
New Jersey, USA
WE have heard several times the story of the lion and the lamb. The lion is considerate enough not to kill the lamb unless he feels hungry, but the Bush administration’s lions who have enough wealth at home are bent on capturing oil reserves in the Mideast, specially in Iraq.
These lions seem determined to kill people in Iraq in spite of massive protests the world over. Thus, sociologists and historians should henceforward forget about the lion and the lamb story and refer to the Bush and Saddam story, instead.
MAJID KHAN JADOON
Karachi
I THINK your editorial, ‘2002: when the US ruled the roost’ (Dec 31), made interesting reading.
While as an Indian, I do have reservations about the sideswipe at Gujarat, it made a pretty good summary. I think North Korea is going to expose the faults in Bush’s foreign policy.
The problem is that the Democrats are neither vocal nor united in their opposition to Bush. As a result, the US president goes unchallenged for the most part. The media, too, does not do an objective investigation into international issues.
NILESH PANANDIKAR
San Francisco, USA
AS I was going out of Karachi, I had applied for a temporary closure of my telephone.
On my return I applied for its restoration on Nov 15. The application was accepted but the telephone line was not opened even after more than one month.
I visited Gulistan-i-Jauhar Exchange of the PTCL to see what was happening. There I was asked to get a clearance certificate from Gulshan-i-Iqbal Exchange as Gulistan-i-Jauhar Exchange does not issue this certificate and all billing matters of Gulistan-i-Jauhar subscribers are dealt with there.
At Gulshan-i-Iqbal Exchange, I was told to submit the last paid bill and a copy of my national identity card. As at that time I was not having the last paid bill, I requested the PTCL staff to check if there was anything outstanding against me.
Among those who were objecting to my request, one person was very humble and gentle. He checked the data and confirmed that nothing was outstanding against me.
I then requested them to issue a clearance certificate on the basis of the Exchange’s record. This was, however, declined and I was asked to submit an application for the certificate with a copy of the NIC and the last paid bill.
They further said that it would take two to three days to issue it. I wonder why such procedures are allowed which only add to the difficulties of the common man.
In the first place, the PTCL should have informed me that the application submitted earlier was not complete and if only a clearance was required, the account could have been checked easily as it was an inter-departmental matter.
This whole exercise only tortured me for no fault of mine.
M. ARSHAD SIDDIQUI
Karachi
THIS is with reference to a number of letters published in your newspaper about computerized national identity cards (CNICs).
Nadra takes the responsibility of all necessary processes, production and delivery of CNICs at the doorsteps of citizens.
It is clarified that the National Database and Registration Authority takes utmost care in the issuance of CNICs. It is trying its best to produce and deliver CNICs to eligible citizens of Pakistan only.
The procedure for the issuance of CNICs may be lengthy, it is, however, important to eliminate any chances of fraudulent and improper use by people having criminal intentions, as well as, by illegal aliens.
To expeditiously process queries of applicants, a special tracking model has been established and made available all over the country at Nadra’s helpline 111-162-372.
We request all applicants seeking more information through Dawn to provide Nadra with their old identity card numbers, receipt numbers or CNIC application forms’ numbers so as to enable us to process their queries swiftly.
JEHANZEB AZIZ
Advisor, Nadra,
Islamabad
IT was indeed sad and distressing to see a musical show named after a cigarette brand on PTV recently.
In the show a famous pop star, performing in front of an audience, including some top personalities from the showbiz world, thanked the tobacco company for sponsoring the release of his new album.
I wonder how he would have felt if he had seen two of my patients earlier that day, both dying from advanced lung cancer caused by their smoking habit.
According to a research conducted by the Cancer Society, lung cancer is the commonest form of cancer among men in Pakistan. This cancer is mostly caused by smoking.
Looking at the current smoking patterns, the World Health Organization has predicted that about 500 million will eventually be killed by the tobacco use. More than half of these deaths will be of those who are now children and teenagers.
I appeal to the pop stars of our country to refrain from spreading further tobacco use. Youngsters love their musical heroes. When they see them performing on a stage decorated among other things with a large tobacco advertisement, they start thinking that smoking is a cool and glamorous habit.
I request PTV to stop tobacco advertising through these musical shows. Such advertising has been shown to have a strong influence on children and teenagers.
Most countries, including our neighbours, have therefore, banned tobacco advertising so as to discourage youth from taking to the habit of smoking.
PTV should appreciate that it is a party to the spread of disease, disability and death in our country by such promotion of the tobacco use.
It is high time PTV realized that it has a very important role to play in educating the public about health.
PROF JAVAID KHAN
Karachi
THIS refers to the article, ‘Deeper into the communal trap’ (Dec 31), by Maqbool Ahmed Bhatty.
He has rightly said, “Despite the short-sighted attempts by power hungry politicians, the ancient Indian civilization has certain values that need to be adhered to.”
Much as the Pakistanis would like to disown their heritage, they are also heirs to this civilization and I presume this will also apply to them.
Pakistan which was also intended to be a secular country chose to be Islamic and have practically no minority to talk about. We, in spite of immense provocation, are still secular and will continue to be so.
Hindu-Muslim problems have a long history. These problems are very deep-rooted — so much so that it will take both Pakistan and India many generations to solve them.
We, the Indians, are confident that solutions to these problems will be found and that this, of course, is a passing phase.
ARVIND GANGAL
Maharashtra, India
THIS refers to Amir R. Salaria’s letter, ‘INS issue: what should Pakistan do?’ (Jan 2).
Mr Salaria is missing the point when he classifies “the two terrorists nabbed in the US as Indian terrorists”. He has also conveniently forgotten to add the fact that they were Muslims — one of them with an expired visa on a fake passport.
It would be wrong for Mr Salaria to say that the Indians, in general, are sheltered from the inhuman treatment meted out by the US authorities to Pakistani and other terror suspects.
The Indian Muslims are receiving their fair share of humiliating treatment at every airport in Europe and the US. Even the Muslim citizens (lawful) are looked down upon with renewed suspicion. Their luggage is checked more thoroughly, a few probing questions are asked after being singled out at the airport, a conspicuous search is made of the person holding a Muslim sounding name in his driving licence (if he appears to be a non-African American).
The writer seems to be suffering from selective amnesia when he says that “no Pakistani has been arrested ...etc”. He has forgotten Yusuf Ramzi and the other person who opened fire on FBI agents (killing at least one) and was tried in the US court and recently executed for his crime.
The free movement of the FBI personnel in Pakistan and the picking up of Pakistani citizens with impunity goes on to explain the compliance and the mild tone the Pakistan government adopts when it sides with the US forces and conveniently forgets the rights and plights of its own citizens.
DR SHEKHAR PATEL
Columbia, USA
A PICTURE which appeared in your newspaper on page 13 (Dec 29) caught my attention owing to something extraordinary.
Three people accused of plotting an ambush on American officials in Karachi were shown being taken to a Karachi’s anti-terrorism court by the police.
The extraordinary thing in the picture was that one of
the accused was holding the holy Quran in his hand (which was out of handcuffs) and was showing it to photographers and onlookers.
The questions arise: (i) Why was this accused not led to the court in handcuffs, whereas we recently saw that Dr Khawaja, who is more than 60 years old, and his brother were presented in the court in handcuffs? (ii) Who provided them with the holy Quran in police custody?
MUDASSIR HUSSAIN AZIMABADI
Karachi
I WELCOME Dr Sher Afghan into the fold of ‘Q’ League. He stands counted. He has trotted into the swelling ranks of ‘patriots’ whom Mr Jamali so badly needed. I am sure Dr Afghan’s stand is as principled as that of the other patriots who hold the cause of democracy close to their hearts.
It will not be long before more patriots jump on the bandwagon of power and authority — some for the reason that their ‘conscience’ pricks them while others do so to promote the political careers of their offshoots.
Offshoots sometimes become Achilles’ heels for politicians. Didn’t the great doyen of democracy, Nawabzada Nasrullah Khan, sit with smug satisfaction dragging at his electronic hookah as long as his progeny was up and running the revenue minister in not-too-distant past?
Dr Afghan is no democrat as compared to Nawabzada if the struggle for democracy has any credentials to note. I have a suggestion for Dr Afghan: be a good democrat, take your Rs10 million development fund and hibernate.
MEHRAN LEGHARI
Lahore
THE written tests for the CSS-2001 examinations ended in the middle of January 2002. After about five months the results of the written tests were announced by the Federal Public Service Commission. It took the FPSC four more months to declare the final merit list after having conducted interviews and medical examination.
It has now been three months since then that hundreds of candidates declared successful in the merit list are awaiting their allocation or otherwise in the already mutilated Services/ Groups. So far so good.
The military government, owing to its innate and uncontrolled contempt for civilian bureaucracy, has already defaced the elite CSS and the number of seats announced this year to be filled up is 25 per cent less than those of previous years. It means the number of the fortunate ones will be less this year as there are no seats in the DMG group to be allocated to successful candidates.
About 50 competent persons will be crucified at the altar of the flop show (read local government system). It bespeaks so much for the much-trumpeted efforts of the government for creating employment opportunities and decreasing poverty.
This is a great injustice that the non-allocation of the DMG seats was announced long after the candidates were interviewed. They were not informed about it at that time which might have enabled them to change their preferences.
In addition, the next CSS-2002 examinations are some 18 days away and the announcement of allocations is not in sight. The desperate prospective candidates are anxiously waiting for the final announcement of the results so that they may single-mindedly think of reappearing in the coming examinations.
KHAIR KHWAH
Lahore
THE article by Irfan Hussein (Dec 28) is most objectionable and uncalled for. As managing trustee of the Dr Abdul Qadeer Khan institute of High Technology, I would like to repudiate the allegations made in the article.
Referring to Dr Abdul Qadeer Khan as the “Retired Godfather of Pakistan’s Nuclear Programme” is unworthy of the writer who is eminent in his own field.
If Dr Khan had not been made to retire under external pressure, he could have gone on to devise an anti-missile shield for which India now has two top promoters.
“Issuing bellicose statements on our nuclear capability” is a tit-for-tat for what comes out from across the border and has made the rats scamper back into their holes as admitted by India Today. If they engage in verbal duels, what is the harm in a rejoinder?
Since the matter is sub judice, it cannot be elaborated upon. The article has admitted that patients are forced to go for private consultation to Dr Haroon Ahmed’s clinic.
Readers can judge who is the beneficiary of this episode which resulted in the charging of fees at the Institute of Behavioural Sciences which was intended to be offering free service. There have been irregularities which will come out in the judicial inquiry.
Dr Abdul Qadeer Khan was chairman of the IBS and does not have to be an expert in behavioural sciences to ensure that its affairs are run in an honest and professional manner. The good doctor cannot see his baby thrown out of the tub along with the bath water.
As regards the palatial house at Islamabad, a very high-ranking army general remarked before the elite of Karachi that if the whole budget of Pakistan was gifted to Dr Abdul Qadeer Khan, it would not be sufficient recognition of his merit. Where would Messrs. Cowasjee and Irfan Hussain be today but for his priceless contribution towards the safety of our motherland?
S. H. A. NAQVI
Karachi
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