October 18, 2002	Friday	Sha'aban 11, 1423

LONDON: One of the questions that keep cropping up among the great and the good of Europe is: is Tony Blair going to become the first president of the European Union?

As Blair cosies up to President Bush on Iraq and strains the patience of his European counterparts to the limit, the idea may seem preposterous. Apart from anything else, Blair has not been too good at leading Britain into what its European partners regard as one of the principle manifestations of seriousness about ‘Europe’, namely membership of the new Eurozone.

Nevertheless, in Brussels and other European capitals, Blair’s name keeps cropping up. Of course, there is a certain amount of question-begging in all this, because the very idea of a President of Europe is, at this stage, a cloud no bigger than a man’s hand.

But the hand in question is none other than someone who can legitimately claim to be one of the fathers of the Euro, namely Valery Giscard d’Estaing, former President of France and now the president of the official convention examining the future of Europe and due to make proposals by the middle of next year.

At present the Council of Ministers — European leaders — meets twice or three times a year, under a different ‘presidency’ every six months and there is a certain lack of continuity and sensible planning.

There are all manner of obstacles in the way of a harmonious progression for Europe in the next few years. Quite apart from what a possible war with Iraq holds out for the oil price and the economy generally, the rules under which European economic governance works are already under considerable strain.

Ten new applicants for membership of the EU (mainly from eastern Europe) are due to complete entry negotiations by the end of the year, but if the Irish referendum on the Nice Treaty is defeated this weekend, everything will be in a state of flux.

So Europe has a few problems on its hands. But it always has, and the history of the European Union is that somehow it staggers through the bureaucratic and political minefield and manages to march on. Such an aspect leaves many betting that, one way or another, there will be a vacancy for a European President in a few years’ time.

President Blair? Well, for some time now Blair has been accused of bringing a presidential style to British politics. He is certainly obsessed with the concept of presidency, seemingly worshipping American presidents of any political persuasion — surely the definitive example of Blair’s famous ‘third way.’

But on the reasonable assumption that it takes the EU some years to get round to a presidency, Blair might well be happy to move from prime minister to president some time after the next election, possibly taking Britain into the euro with him.—Dawn/The Guardian News Service.