KARACHI, Oct 9: Candidates of five major political parties contesting from NA-250 constituency are offering conflicting estimates of voter turnout on the polling day.
NA-250 comprises two provincial assembly constituencies, PS-112 and PS-113. The decision to hold National and provincial assemblies’ elections the same day was apparently taken to create activity and generate heat by collective efforts of the National and provincial assemblies’s candidates.
How far it is going to give the desired results will be seen on Thursday. Candidates, however, appear to be uncertain and confused. Only the candidate of the Muttahida Qaumi Movement was straight and candid and bluntly stated her party’s target.
A confident and highly optimistic Nasreen Jalil of the MQM told Dawn by phone on Wednesday that her party was targeting anywhere between 35-40 per cent of votes in this constituency which had more than 200,000 registered voters.
If the MQM has targeted 70,000-80,000 votes in this constituency, then the total turnout should be at least more than 100,000. It is by all means a pretty good polling ratio when compared to the polling ratio in the 1997 and 1993 elections.
Mamnoon Husain, a former governor of Sindh, who is contesting on a PML (N) ticket from NA-250, does not believe that the voting pattern would be better this time than in 1997 when it had been hardly 30 per cent.
Mr Mamnoon has a master’s degree from the IBA. He is a resident of Arambagh area. He is seeking vote as a nextdoor neighbour. He is handicapped by the division of his party’s vote-bank because of Wajid Jawwad, who is in the run as a candidate of a breakaway group of the PML.
“In the old town areas of Burnes Road, Preedy Street, Ratan Talao and other adjoining areas, people are just silent listeners,” he shared his observation stating there was a lot of frustration and disappointment in the middle and lower-middle classes. Without saying it directly he wanted to convey that “the people are losing faith in the democratic process.”
Nasreen Jalil said she encountered a lot of questions in small gatherings of relatively prosperous businessmen in the Clifton and Defence area. “This showed that they are involved in the process and want to have a dialogue with politicians,” she remarked.
Wajid Jawwad, the PML (Q) candidate, is a well-known textile exporter. He was also chairman of the Export Promotion Bureau when Nawaz Sharif was prime minister. He has his own calculations for seeking contest. He anticipates a better voter turnout on Thursday than in 1997.
NA-250 is a restructured constituency of the previous NA-191. Previously there were about 250,000 voters in this constituency. With the increase in the number of NA seats for Karachi, the constituencies have been restructured. A sizable number of votes have been taken out from this constituency. But the complexion of constituency voters has seen a qualitative change after including a good number of minorities and those up to 18 years of age.
Mr Wajid is apparently banking on this qualitative change in the voter complexion of his constituency, who he believes can tilt the balance in his favour.
In normal political environment, the inclusion of minorities and youngsters in the voters list should have benefited the Pakistan People’s Party. In spite of all the stories about corruption and a legacy of misrule in the previous two terms, the PPP still remains a ray of hope for many. However, now the PPP looks disorganized and demoralized. Mirza Ikhtiar Baig, who has a doctorate in business administration from a university in Hawai, has come out with his own prescription for treating economic sickness. He lacks the fire and zeal of a traditional PPP worker.
Mr Baig says he held many sessions in the kutcha abadis of Shirin Jinnah Colony, Punjab Colony, Hijrat Colony, Jamhooria Colony and many other localities, and he has been able to convey his party’s message. He hopes an encouraging turnout of voters on Thursday.
Abdul Sattar Afghani, a former mayor of Karachi, who is contesting from this constituency on the ticket of the Muttahida Majlis-i-Amal (MMA), an alliance of religio-political parties, is confident of support from a good number of voters in Clifton and Defence. “The number of those who come to mosques in Clifton and Defence is very encouraging,” he said.
Traditionally only 12-15 per cent voters have been casting their votes from Defence and Clifton. But this time candidates Nasreen Jalil, Sattar Afghani, Wajid Jawwad, Mamnoon Husain and Ikhtiar Baig are confident of motivating voters in Defence and Clifton to come out in greater numbers.
After the MQM, it is only the MMA, with the Jamaat-i-Islami as its main component, which can boast of a highly committed cadre of political activists. It has attracted many of those who are disillusioned with the Musharraf government’s policies in the past three years.
All said and done, there was more rush on the video shops in Saddar, Burnes Road and other areas of old town on Wednesday evening of those looking for new Indian film releases than in the election camps of the political parties.
