ISLAMABAD, Sept 16: Only low-profile prime ministerial hopefuls are left in the field after the ouster of top leaders from what opposition parties fear will be the most manipulated elections in the country’s history.
None of these aspirants — all from the politically dominant Punjab and Sindh — personally carries a nationwide appeal, which their parties contesting the elections from all the four provinces, have.
The absence of former prime ministers Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif from the scene has thrown up Makhdoom Amin Fahim of the People’s Party Parliamentarians and Raja Zafrul Haq of Pakistan Muslim League (N) as potential candidates for the prime minister versus Mian Mohammad Azhar of the PML (Quaid-i-Azam).
Although Nawaz Sharif has opted out of elections to avoid possible disqualification under the controversial laws enforced by President Pervez Musharraf, his wife Kusloom and brother Shahbaz Sharif and Ms Bhutto are still fighting it out in courts.
But their parties attach little hopes to the judiciary, which, they say, has acquiesced to the military rule after swearing allegiance to the Provisional Constitution Order.
Mr Fahim can be most sure of all the aspirants to win his seat to the National Assembly and party nomination for prime minister if Ms Bhutto’s slender hopes for the office are finally crushed.
A weak independent candidate is challenging Mr Fahim at his Hala bastion, where his religious gaddi can still resist inroads from political rivals or what the PPP calls unprecedented official interference to benefit the PML(Q).
The soft-spoken Fahim, who holds the title of Pir of Hala, has been a minister of state in the cabinet of the late Zulfikar Ali Bhutto and a minister in both the governments led by Benazir Bhutto.
Attention focused on Zafarul Haq as a probable PML (N) nominee for premiership last week after an appellate election tribunal rejected the nomination papers of Shahbaz Sharif and Kulsoom Nawaz on the grounds that their signatures were not attested by the Pakistani consulate in Jeddah and alleged loan default.
Mr Haq has been a cabinet minister with both Gen Ziaul Haq and Nawaz Sharif, but a parliamentary seat eluded Zafrul Haq until the PML elected him in 1993 to the Senate, where he earned respect as the leader of house.
Having failed to win a National Assembly seat from his native and tribally influenced Murree-Kahuta constituency — Gen Zia called him “my opening batsman in the 1985 party-less elections — Zafrul Haq is now standing from the more liberal Rawalpindi city, still awaiting the PPP to withdraw its candidate against him under the promised seat adjustment between the two parties.
Chances of former Punjab governor Mian Azhar to take the top job improved after the rejection of the candidacy of Shahbaz Sharif, whose initial presence in the field spurred speculation of a possible deal with the government.
But political sources say Mr Azhar, who has so far had his say in the make-up of his PML faction — nicknamed the “King’s party” for its support to Gen Musharraf’s policies — could face challenge from his own party or allies.
Potential challengers could be the influential Chaudhrys of Gujrat headed by former interior minister Shujaat Hussain, former National Assembly speaker Ilahi Bakhsh Soomro, and Millat Party chief and former president Farooq Leghari, whose National Alliance has reported a shaky seat adjustment with the PML (Q).
