August 9, 2002	Friday	Jamadi-ul-Awwal 29,1423

LONDON: Ranks of clergy, the public and even his own supporters may be lined up against him, but Tony Blair is expected to side with the United States if it attacks Iraq.

In Germany, Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder has tried to make an electoral virtue of opposing war against Saddam Hussein. Opinion polls in Britain suggest Blair should do the same.

But having stood unwaveringly with America since the September 11 attacks on New York and Washington, analysts and politicians believe that if President George W. Bush makes the call to arms, Blair will answer whatever his reservations.

“Downing Street (Blair’s office) puts the trans-Atlantic link above everything else,” said Toby Dodge, associate fellow at the Royal Institute of International Affairs think tank. “I suspect when push comes to shove he will go with it.”

That would give Bush the vital diplomatic cover he needs to talk of an international campaign, not a unilateral grudge match.

Bush has called flatly for “regime change” in Iraq. Foreign Office minister Mike O’Brien said on Wednesday the UK’s priority was the return of weapons inspectors, not overthrowing Saddam.

A warmongering Blair would also jar with his European allies. Not only is Schroeder against an attack, France’s Jacques Chirac said last week he could only back action if it were endorsed by a new United Nations resolution.

But none of this is likely to drive a wedge between Bush and Blair, who believes standing shoulder to shoulder with Washington gives Britain unique international leverage as a bridge between the US and Europe.

“It’s such a central part of Blair’s foreign policy approach, I can’t see him backing off it,” Dodge said.

Baghdad seems to be pinning its hopes on Britain reining in the Bush administration.

“If Britain refused to go along with the United States war against Iraq then I think the American administration would find it very difficult to go ahead,” Iraq’s envoy in London, Mudhafar Amin said.

That plea fell on deaf ears. A Foreign Office source said he was surprised anybody saw Britain mediating on Saddam’s behalf.—Reuters