May 11, 2002	Saturday	Safar 27, 1423

Please Visit our Sponsor (Ads open in separate window).

WASHINGTON, May 10: An op-ed article in The Washington Post, noting that the South Asia is the only part of the world where a nuclear war may break out, on Friday urges the American diplomatic intervention.

It says the US and European officials are increasingly worried about what could happen between Pakistan and India over Kashmir in the next couple of months.

The article, by columnist David Ignatius, also says the officials warn that all the ingredients are in place for a disastrous chain of miscalculation on the order of August 1914 when the over-armed European nations blundered into World War I.

The state department is alarmed enough that it is hurriedly sending a senior official to visit India and Pakistan, probably next week. Secretary of State Colin Powell may call top officials in the two countries by telephone this week to caution against misjudgment.

The possibility of the conflict outlined in the article is based on the assessment that Pakistan will not be able to meet the Indian demands for handing over of 20 suspected militants, and to stop Pakistan-based militants from going into Kashmir as the passes into that region begin to open. The Indian intelligence agency, RAW, is likely to submit a report shortly to the Vajpayee government saying that Islamabad has failed to respond to the two demands, and the report is bound to make hard-liners in the Indian government urge action against Pakistan.

With a three to one superiority in conventional forces “ the Indians could burst across the border and, in a matter of days or even hours, overrun run and effectively cut Pakistan in half”. Many analysts fear that facing an Indian onslaught, Pakistan might launch a retaliatory nuclear attack and India would probably retaliate with its own nuclear weapons.

The article says the Indians believe Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence is deeply involved in the long-running campaign to free Kashmir from Indian control, “and the list of 20 alleged terrorist they have given to Pakistan for extradition includes some people who are reputedly close to the ISI”.

Gen Pervez Musharraf, the article asserts, cannot also meet the other Indian demand, for an end to infiltration of Kashmir, “ seven if he finds some face-keeping compromise on the 20 names. The Pakistani president already ordered such a halt in a widely-praised Jan 12 speech, but analysts say the flow of potential terrorists into Kashmir has continued.