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TEL AVIV: Israeli tanks and troops have left a trail of physical devastation during their offensive in the West Bank and Gaza Strip — and a heap of political debris for Prime Minister Ariel Sharon.
Military gains from the assault were hard to discern as Israeli forces pulled back on Friday, and Sharon was left counting the political cost as a new opinion poll showed his popularity at a fresh low. Sixty per cent of Israelis surveyed said they were dissatisfied with him.
Raids intended to crush Palestinian resistance appear only to have increased defiance in the 18th month of an uprising against Israeli occupation and have failed to halt suicide bombings and other attacks on Israelis.
People in the West Bank city of Ramallah emerged dazed from their homes on Friday after three days of military occupation to find streets chewed up by tanks and armoured bulldozers, cars shunted aside, power pylons and telephone lines felled, water pipes pierced and walls and road signs demolished.
The offensive has drawn criticism from the United States, Israel’s key ally, and increased divisions in the coalition government, sparking a row between Sharon and his defence minister in the same week as two cabinet ministers quit.
“In the plus column, the offensive has strengthened Israel’s deterrent image. By going into Palestinian refugee camps, the army has shown there’s almost nowhere where it won’t go,” said Joseph Alpher, an Israeli political analyst.
“But this will not be seen as a significant military move that changed the nature of the Israeli-Palestinian struggle. In fact, it poses the question of the limits of the use of force quite starkly, whether or not this has registered with Sharon.”
Turning to the diplomatic and political fallout of the military offensive, Alpher said: “It has not helped Israel’s international image and a lot of damage has been done in the West Bank which will just create more suicide bombers.”
He said it remained to be seen whether Sharon might have been using the offensive as a means of appeasing right-wing critics, who demand tougher action, as a prelude to making peace overtures that would please Israel’s political left.
BETWEEN A ROCK AND A HARD PLACE: Sharon sent 20,000 troops into action in Palestinian-ruled cities and refugee camps in the West Bank and Gaza Strip after a wave of Palestinian attacks.
He started withdrawing the troops on Thursday night after criticism led by US President George W. Bush, United Nations Secretary General Kofi Annan and European Commission President Romano Prodi.
As the pressure mounted this week, Sharon dropped his long-standing demand for seven days of total calm before a truce-to-talks plan can go into force.
The double-edged policy reflects Sharon’s political dilemma in Israel, where he has been under pressure from the right to take stronger action against the Palestinian Authority and from the left to return to peacemaking.
The military offensive appears to have backfired on him by antagonising all sides — the Israeli public, coalition partners on the right and left, the Palestinians and world leaders.
“I think Sharon was trying to show the Israeli public he’s doing his best and can be tough to try to reduce the problems he faces,” said Palestinian political analyst Ghassan al-Khatib.
“In this regard it backfired. Reading the Israeli newspapers, it is clear there is no sense of victory in Israel.”
Khatib said Palestinian morale was high and sympathy with President Yasser Arafat had increased among ordinary Palestinians and world leaders since the offensive began.
PROBLEMS WITH RIGHT AND LEFT: The army offensive appealed to Israeli right-wingers but led to a spat with centre-left Defence Minister Binyamin Ben-Eliezer at a cabinet meeting on Wednesday when ministers discussed whether to press on with the assault.
But when Sharon dropped his demand for seven days of total calm, a gesture welcomed by the left, two ultra-nationalist ministers quit.
Political analysts say Sharon’s grip on the government remains firm, despite the problems.
“Sharon’s popularity might be declining in the polls but politically — in the maintenance of the government — his position is still very powerful,” said Hillel Frisch, a political analyst at Israel’s Bar-Ilan University.
Frisch said the international criticism, particularly that of the United States, was much more significant in the near future than the domestic pressure on Sharon.
“The government had been surprised until now by the free hand the US administration had given it,” Frisch said.
The US criticism raises questions about what approach US envoy Anthony Zinni will take during a peace mission he began to the region on Thursday.
Some analysts say that after previously pouring more criticism on the Palestinian Authority than on the Israelis for failing to the violence, the United States might from now on take a tougher stance against Israel as well.
Even so, hopes of a breakthrough remain slim.
“It’s not clear where we are heading, but if a peace process does develop, I don’t think Sharon or Arafat has a strategy for peace,” Alpher said.—Reuters
