Extending central authority’s writ key to Karzai’s success
KABUL, Dec 23: Of all the challenges facing Afghanistan’s new leader Hamid Karzai, extending his authority over a fractured country in the hands of warlords is one that will prove the measure of failure or success.
As Karzai sets out to heal the wounds of 23 years of war, analysts say the aristocratic southern Pakhtoon tribal leader faces a difficult struggle in bringing central power to bear on a land of private fiefdoms.
And, they say, the US air strikes that swept the Taliban from power may have complicated his task by restoring to power the warlords whose fighting devastated Kabul and the country after the withdrawal of Soviet forces in 1989.
“All these warlords were finished and now they’re back because of the Taliban defeat,” said Rahimullah Yusufzai, a journalist.
“These warlords are not used to taking orders from anyone in Kabul...and I don’t expect Karzai, with six months at his disposal, to force these guys to give up their power.”
Karzai, a supporter of exiled former king Zahir Shah, was sworn in on Saturday as head of a 30-member interim government given a six-month mandate to set Afghanistan on the road to recovery.
Most of the country’s warlords were at the ceremony, the first peaceful transfer of power in Afghanistan for decades, to demonstrate their support for a process agreed at U.N.-sponsored talks in Germany.
“All the leaders were there, but that does not mean that the government will extend all over the country,” said Pakistani analyst and writer Ahmed Rashid, a recognised authority on Afghanistan.
THREE KEY TASKS: Rashid said Karzai’s main challenges were to disarm the warlords of their heavy weapons, establish a civil service in the provinces loyal to the central government and ensure warlords adhered to provisions for a move to democracy.
“These are three main issues for the next six months and each one will have to be separately negotiated with each warlord,” said Rashid.
“Everything has to be done now by the international community to strengthen the centre and make it credible.”
Mindful of the challenges, Karzai put the focus on security and the creation of a functioning civil service at the first meeting of his cabinet on Sunday. He has also said he plans to visit all of Afghanistan early in his mandate.
He has strong support in his quest both from the international community and the Afghan people, bitter and traumatised after a succession of wars that have wrecked the country and wasted an entire generation.
“You are here in the capital of Afghanistan in the Internet age, but this is a country without proper electricity, a reliable water supply, food or proper roads,” said political scientist Mirza Gul Sagani.
“People want peace and they know that with fighting they have too much to lose,” said Sagani, a professor at the faculty of law and political science at Kabul University.
How much pressure the public, particularly urban intellectuals and women, can bring to bear on the political process remains unclear after so many years of war and the ravages of Taliban repression.
Karzai himself, without substantial arms and lacking an established powerbase in Kabul, remains reliant on support for his task from the ethnic Tajik Jamiat-i-Islami party, the key force in the militarily dominant Northern Alliance.
It holds the three powerful ministries — defence, interior and foreign affairs — and its forces control Kabul, where the Northern Alliance has resisted deployment of a robust international security force.
Analysts foresee a sharp political contest emerging over the next six months as Afghanistan moves into the next stage of a process meant to lead to elections by mid-2004.
It will centre on the Loya Jirga, or traditional grand assembly, that will appoint a transitional authority to govern the country for up to 18 months.
“It’s not just the Loya Jirga. It’s a question of who gets nominated to sit on it,” said Rashid. “That’s going to be part of the power struggle over the next six months.”
Some warlords have already complained that the present government is unrepresentative, among them northern ethnic Uzbek general Abdul Rashid Dostum and Ismail Khan, who controls the western city of Herat.
Both were seated prominently at Saturday’s ceremony and Karzai was at pains to refer to them as “patriots”.
Dostum, Khan and others all owe their return to influence to the US air strikes.
Analysts say they will be mindful of how effective those bombardments were in routing the Taliban should they be tempted to protect their interests through violence.
But they also say the very same warlords remain crucial to the American hunt for Saudi-born militant Osama bin Laden, prime suspect in the September 11 attacks on the United States.
“All the commanders have seen American power...so the message has been heard,” said Yusufzai.
“But the fact remains that the Americans at this stage will not be trying to unravel the Northern Alliance or alienating any of these key commanders who have been very helpful until now.”—Reuters
