KARACHI, Nov 29: The World Bank officials think it is premature to put a price tag on reconstruction needs of Afghanistan before making a detailed assessment but indicate that some estimates are possible on the basis of past work done by the Bank in post-conflict reconstruction in other countries.
International experience suggests that reconstruction costs of Afghanistan are expected to be high. With a population of less than two million in West Bank/Gaza, a total of $3 billion was proposed for reconstruction assistance in the first two years.
In Lebanon (population four million), reconstruction assistance was in the range of $400 million per year for ten years. The total pledges for humanitarian relief and reconstruction for Bosnia with a population of five million, amounted to $5.4 billion for 1995-1999.
And East Timor, with a population of less than half a million, is receiving $350 million of reconstruction aid over a three-year period.
The present in-country population of Afghanistan is estimated at 18-20 million and if all refugees living abroad were to return, the population would go up to 25 million. Afghanistan has suffered a 22-year long war that has virtually destroyed all of its social and human capital and physical infrastructure.
For example, WB officials reckon that clearance of land mines from all over Afghanistan could cost as much as $500 million. But, this is only one among a number of important activities, which would need substantial funding.
WB bank officials say that Afghanistan faces a dire humanitarian emergency in the short run and large needs for reconstruction and development over time. Based on international experiences, reconstruction needs are estimated in the range of $10-20 billion but numbers would be firmed up on the basis of actual assessment.
The level of reconstruction assistance will be determined by the country’s balance of payments and budgetary financing needs, which are expected to be quite large. The domestic absorbing capacity is expected to be a low at first— in the initial stages of reconstruction.
As the draft WB strategy indicates, early reconstruction programme which could generate “quick wins” may be developed and their cost assessed. Wherever, possible, on-going successful programme would be expanded.
A major effort would be made to create an enabling environment for private sector development, particularly to attract and productively utilize Afghans from Pakistan, Iran and the Middle East.
Among the proposals being considered is creation of informal advisory group consisting of Afghans and experts from other countries on Afghanistan. A search for Afghan professionals living outside their homeland would also be launched to help in reconstruction.
