NEW YORK: Immediately after the last Gulf war, the late June Jordan, a prominent poet and peace activist, was asked to explain the national euphoria propelling George Bush Sr to the political deity. The president was enjoying higher approval ratings than Harry Truman after the second World War; the head of the Association of State Democratic Chairs, Jim Ruvolo, described him as “getting close to unbeatable” at the polls. If the war was such a bad idea, Jordan was asked, why was the man most closely associated with prosecuting it so popular?

“I suggest to you it’s a hit the same way that crack is,” she said. “And it doesn’t last long.” A year later Bush was voted out of office.

Thirteen years on, yet another President Bush is on a high from yet another war in the Gulf. For a moment last week, as he appeared to be heading for just one more quick fix in Syria, it looked like addiction might have got the better of him.

But as the delirium wears off, so sobriety is kicking in. Bush needs to get re-elected. As long as he was demonstrating military strength abroad his political weakness at home was well hidden. His failures were wrapped in the flag and the potential to debate them buried with each slain American soldier.

Now the nation has seen General Tommy Franks sit at the dinner table in Saddam Hussein’s former palace and carve Iraq up into bite-size Bantustans, its attention will quickly move on to more immediate concerns. Since Bush came to power, two million jobs have been lost and the Dow has lost almost a quarter of its value. As the commander-in-chief of a recently victorious army, he may be popular. But as the president of a nation in an economic downturn, he is as at least as vulnerable as his father was at this stage in his presidency.

His talent for destroying regimes that his father once armed and bankrolled has been proven. His ability to rebuild the American economy has, like his father’s before him, been found wanting. From now on they will want Bush to talk less about homeland security and more about job security.

But at the moment the 2004 presidential election looks as though it could shape up to look a little like the recently released film, Head of State, starring Chris Rock. Rock’s character is standing for the White House as a populist candidate, worried about the lot of the working poor.

At this point it is difficult to see what he will have to show for his four years in office come November next year, apart from two wars and the bills for them.

His domestic agenda has all but collapsed due to his inability to convince his own side. The Republican-controlled Congress is set to halve his much-vaunted tax-cut plan, the cornerstone of his economic stimulus package, and has already thrown out his attempt to open up Alaska’s wilderness to more oil drilling.

Bush is a different animal from his father and three things could stop history repeating itself. The first is the Democrats. The prospect of getting rid of Bush will energise many Democrats but the nine who have put themselves forward so far have either failed to capture the popular imagination or simply have little hope of getting elected.

Second, God forbid, another terrorist attack, which will once again rally the nation around its leader in a time of crisis. And third, if he falls off the wagon, is overwhelmed by the craving, and goes off in search of another war.—Dawn/The Guardian News Service.