There is much hope for the provinces. With the larger resource transfers to the federating units under the Seventh National Finance Commission Award signed in December 2009, the thorny issue of inter regional income disparity is expected to be sorted out to some extent by new fiscal measures.

The limited fiscal space because of the low tax-to-GDP ratio and slow economic growth may not allow the government to dent poverty (particularly in urban areas) and household income disparities in a meaningful fashion.

To top it all, the lack of any deep economic insight in the present political hierarchy has compromised the government's ability to manage economic recovery and to resolve complex multi-layered problems of a country at war with itself.

The multiple challenges and the absence of an economic wizard in the ranks of the PPP have led the first elected government in the current millennium to frequently shuffle economic ministers.

Even the position of the federal finance secretary that could have lent some measure of stability to economic policy making was geared by three bureaucrats with one officer taking the reins of the most powerful ministry twice with a brief gap. When the PPP came to power, Dr Waqar Masud was head of finance. He was replaced by Mr Farrukh Qayyum when Mr Ishaq Dar took over as finance minister.

With the exit of PML(N)minister, Mr Farrukh Qayyum was shown the door and Dr Waqar Masud briefly took over only to handover the charge to Mr Salman Siddique a few months before the last budget under then Finance Minister Shaukat Tareen. The level of efficiency in finance ministry with revolving door is anybody's guess.

“From what I heard, there is an utter confusion in Islamabad over the direction of the budget. The nine-point economic roadmap with clear markers developed earlier by the Economic Advisory Committee has been set aside, so it seems, but with no alternate programme in place. Dr Hafiz Sheikh, advisor to PM on finance, is shuttling from office to office but has yet to show leadership”, a well placed source privy to the whole exercise told Dawn from Islamabad.

With political leadership not in a position to do anything beyond setting general policy direction, (reflecting aspirations of its legislators), the task of budget-making has been left to the bureaucracy.

“It would be naïve to expect a good crop on a rocky land no matter how much you water it. The bureaucracy is neither trained nor oriented to apply creativity in economic policy making”, commented a Senator in Islamabad not too happy with the appointment of Dr Hafiz Sheikh.

Besides, there is very little space to manoeuvre on both sides — resource generation and expenditure. “The framework has been set by demands of PPP legislators on one extreme and IMF's conditions on the other”, said a senior officer in the ministry of finance.

After Shaukat Tareen's departure the government had to approach Dr Hafiz Sheikh to take charge, despite a blot on his CV. He was a part of Musharraf's set-up for sometime.

“The government needed someone who enjoys confidence of donors, has credentials for the key post and willing to help Gilani government”, said a PPP stalwart defending the appointment.

“Some may find my view cynical but for me the budget making has become more of a ritual. After deducting debt servicing, defence and recurring expenditure on a top heavy administration what is left in the kitty to budget?” Sultan Chawala, President, Federation of Pakistan Chamber of Commerce and Industry, commented.

“I do not see political will to broaden the tax base to bring in agriculture income and other exempted sectors under the tax net. Neither do I see any commitment to curtail wasteful expenditure. Perhaps, a lot needs to be done to realise a turnaround. The government's performance over the last two years leaves much to be desired”, he added.

“The government has not been able to handle even the issue of Value Added Tax. For God sake, show some leadership. Sindh is a PPP-led province. If the government could not take it along, there is something terribly wrong with people handling the issue”, said another technocrat closely following the government moves.

“The fact is that PPP legislators and leaders have no clue of the economy or its challenges. They come to different decision making forums (cabinet, ECC, etc.) with their personal wish-list. More ambitious ones want more resources at their disposal to do the needful to secure their assembly seats in their home constituencies”, an insider said.

“There is a ruckus at many meetings, with members trading accusations. The seasoned bureaucrats actually play politicians around and get away with anything”, he added.

In the absence of an effective economic leadership that could offer solutions, reconcile conflicting interests, keeping political sensitivities in sight, the fear is that IMF's prescription may be adopted without accommodating genuine concerns.

Some cosmetic populist measures might be announced but the thrust of the budget would not shift to growth from stabilisation, compromising the potential of economic growth.

The economic aspiration of people, swelling queues outside factory gates, unemployed youth occupying street corners waiting for the dream call, households struggling with long electricity outages, parents dreaming education for their children and workmen, traders and manufacturers strategising to sustain businesses need to fend for themselves. The budget 2010-11 may have very little to offer.