ISLAMABAD: The coming Kharif crops face a serious water crisis because estimates of shortfall at the start of the sowing season in April range between 60 per cent and 70 per cent. Dawn

Sources told on Friday the Tarbela reservoir touched its dead level early this week while the Mangla dam, which had only 13 feet of additional water, was expected to reach its dead level early next week.

The relevant agencies and the provinces are anticipating severe shortage in the last week of March and have begun reducing discharges.

The sources said the Punjab irrigation department had informed Chief Minister Shahbaz Sharif and all other relevant departments of the looming water shortage and warned that the crisis could last till the end of April if temperatures did not begin to rise in the northern parts of the country soon.

The sources said that water flows in the major rivers had declined significantly in recent days.

They said the flows in Jhelum river, which stood at 28,000 cusecs a few days ago, came down to 24,000 cusecs on Thursday, plummeting further to 8,000 cusecs on Friday.

The flows in the Kabul river have also come down to 6,000 cusecs from 10,000 cusecs a few days ago. Similarly, the flows in the Indus river have dropped to 19,000 cusecs from 22,000 cusecs.

As a result, Punjab's water share from the Indus zone has been exhausted even though crops in the province still need some watering.

In an attempt to minimise the adverse effects of the shortage, the Indus River System Authority (Irsa) and the Punjab irrigation department have reached an understanding to readjust provincial water shares. In case of a severe crisis, Punjab stands to lose the most.

The Irsa has decided to close with effect from Sunday Punjab's two canals on the Taunsa barrage — Muzaffargarh and D.G. Khan — from where the province has been drawing about 4,000 cusecs of water. In return, Punjab will start getting 4,000 cusecs from the Mangla zone through Punjnad.

Discharges through the Thall canal will also be reduced from 6,000 to 4,000 cusecs. Moreover, Punjab's share from the Trimmu barrage will be cut by 50 per cent on Sunday, from the existing flows of about 9,000 cusecs.

The water so saved would be diverted to Sindh downstream of Punjnad barrage, the sources said.

“The water situation is really alarming,” a government official remarked. He said the Irsa had convened a meeting of its technical committee on March 16 to assess the situation and finalise estimates for water availability during the coming crop season.

When contacted, an Irsa spokesman acknowledged that there would be a shortfall in the early part of April, but added that the shortage would not cross the 70 per cent mark. He said the standing crops would remain unaffected.

When asked about the Irsa's current estimates of water shortage, the spokesman simply said the relevant data would be finalised at the meeting to be held on March 16.

According to the estimates released by Irsa on Friday, the Tarbela dam was at its dead level of 1,378 feet, with inflows of 19,700 cusecs and outflows of 19,100 cusecs. Storage level at the Mangla dam stood at 1,053.9 feet on Friday morning against its dead level of 1,040 feet.

Inflows at Mangla were recorded at 7,998 cusecs against outflows of 35,000 cusecs. As a result, total inflows at rim stations were recorded at 52,611 cusecs on Friday morning against total outflows below rim stations at about 80,000 cusecs.