Predicting the Best Shorts (live action, documentary and animation) during the Oscar pre-rush baffles experts and creates the most upsets. This happens for a couple of reasons: apart from academy voters, almost no one has access or means to see these films beforehand. These titles either play in select screenings or festivals, or are generally available only after the Oscar season ends.

The notion continues with Saving Face, Pakistan’s first official Oscar nominee, which will air on HBO on March 8 (International Women’s Day), a week after the Academy Awards.

Saving Face is a story about two acid-attack survivors: Zakia and Rukhsana and their attempts to bring their assailants to justice. It is also the story about London-based, Pakistan-born plastic surgeon, Dr. Mohammad Jawad, and his aims to help these women in desperation.

Guessing which short will win this year is like aiming a shot in the dark with a blindfold on. Judging from industry sources, so far the votes are almost equally tied between The Tsunami and the Cherry Blossom, The Incident in New Baghdad, God is the Bigger Elvis and Saving Face, which has an advantage in overall numbers. The Barber of Birmingham, the fifth of the nominated titles is, for now, the one with the least support.

Now, as far as we are concerned, Saving Face has a few things going for it: it is a humane story with a women-in-plight angle and almost sure to grapple voter attention; co-direction from a Pakistani documentarian—and that too with an Emmy to her credit; her directing partner (Daniel Junge) owns an Oscar nomination.

I wouldn’t be surprised if Saving Face ends up being Pakistan’s first Oscar winner in 2012 out of sheer momentum (as is often the Oscar way). Regardless of its chances of winning, Saving Face has the country’s support and the distinction of being an Oscar nominee. Right now, Sharmeen Obaid-Chinoy (with the country in tow) is living that dream. —Mohammed Kamran Jawaid