SOME have welcomed the decision of 'commander' Fazal Saeed, based in Khyber Agency and until recently with the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan, to split with the group. However, it remains to be seen whether the militant leader's move will really bring peace to the strife-torn region. Saeed, who has announced the formation of his own group, says he broke from the TTP after disagreeing with the terror outfit's policy of attacking civilians and the Pakistani state. However, the militant leader has said his group will continue the 'jihad' against Nato forces in Afghanistan as well as the struggle against “anti-Islam elements” in Pakistan. Reports say that the possibility of an impending military operation in Kurram Agency may have motivated Saeed's departure from the TTP. Though he has denied he is toeing the line of the Pakistani security agencies, Saeed is known to have links with the Haqqani network which, considered part of the 'good Taliban', is reportedly close to the security establishment. There is some speculation that he may have been pressured by the Haqqanis to make the statement. Saeed had welcomed a peace deal that was reached between Shia and Sunni tribes earlier this year and pledged to punish violators (the agreement was violated a number of times thereafter).

Baitullah Mehsud's death in 2009 has left the TTP a much weaker organisation, loosely composed of independent groups calling the shots within their respective spheres of operation. Resultantly, it is unclear how much actual influence Saeed enjoys over militants, given the fact that he controls a limited amount of territory within Kurram itself. If his conditional renunciation of violence is genuine, it could lead to the opening of the Thall-Parachinar road and the end of the Taliban's crippling blockade of the region. However, if this is not achieved and the people of Kurram are unable to travel freely to other parts of the country, Saeed's statement will matter little. There are underlying realities, too, that bode ill for peace. Saeed's outfit is inherently sectarian and has played a major part in igniting communal violence in Kurram; is his move really the first step toward a local solution to the region's problems?