WASHINGTON, Jan 27: The world’s Muslim population is expected to reach 2.2 billion in 2030 from 1.6 billion in 2010, with Pakistan becoming the most populous Muslim nation, says a study released on Thursday.Under current projections, a majority of the world’s Muslims — about 60 per cent — will continue to live in the Asia-Pacific region, says the study by the Washington-based Pew Research Centre.
“But Pakistan is expected to surpass Indonesia as the country with the single largest Muslim population” with a population of about 256 million in 2030 from current 178 million.
Pakistan used to be the largest Muslim nation till 1971, when its majority province — East Pakistan — became an independent nation of Bangladesh.
Indonesia is projected to have 238.8 million Muslims in 2030, with India a close third with 236.18 million and Bangladesh fourth with a projected 187.5 million.
In the United States, the Muslims will more than double in the next 20 years — from 2.6 million in 2010 to 6.2 million in 2030.
Europe’s Muslim population will grow from 44.1 million in 2010 to 58.2 million in 2030.
Muslim populations in some parts of Europe will reach the double digits, with France and Belgium at 10.3 per cent by 2030. In Britain, Muslims will account for 8.2 per cent of the population in 2030, up from an estimated 4.6 per cent today.
The top countries of origin for Muslim immigrants to the US in 2009 were Pakistan and Bangladesh. They are expected to remain the top countries of origin for Muslim immigrants to the US in 2030.
The number of Muslims in Canada will nearly triple, from about 940,000 in 2010 to nearly 2.7 million in 2030.
Argentina will have the third-largest Muslim population in the Americas, after the US and Canada. Argentina, with about one million Muslims in 2010, is now in second place, behind the US.
Globally, the Muslims will grow at about twice the rate for the non-Muslims — an average annual growth rate of 1.5 per cent, compared with 0.7 per cent for non-Muslims.If current trends continue, Muslims will make up 26.4 per cent of the world’s total projected population of 8.3 billion in 2030, up from 23.4 per cent of the estimated 2010 world population of 6.9 billion.
The Muslims, however, will grow at a slower pace in the next two decades, from an average annual rate of 2.2 per cent in 1990-2010 to 1.5 per cent in 2010 to 2030.
Falling birth rates will lead to significant shifts in the age structure of Muslim populations. The so-called Muslim “youth bulge” — the high percentage of Muslims in their teens and 20s — peaked around the year 2000 and is now declining.
Thus, many Muslim-majority countries will have aging populations between 2010 and 2030. Their share of the people of ages 30 years or more will rise from 40 per cent to 50 per cent, and the share of people of ages 60 years or more will nearly double, from 7 per cent to 12 per cent.
Muslim-majority countries, however, are not the only ones with aging populations. As birth rates drop and people live longer all around the globe, the population of the entire world is aging. As a result, the global Muslim population will remain comparatively youthful for decades to come.
The median age in Muslim-majority countries rose from 19 in 1990 to 24 in 2010 and is expected to climb to 30 by 2030. But it will still be lower than the median age in North America, Europe, which rose from 34 to 40 between 1990 and 2010 and is projected to be 44 in 2030.
By that year, nearly three-in-ten of the world’s youth and young adults — 29.1 per cent of people ages 15-29 — are projected to be Muslims, up from 25.8 per cent in 2010 and 20 per cent in 1990.
The projections are based both on past demographic trends and on assumptions about how these trends will play out in future years.