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Today's Paper | May 11, 2024

Published 12 Feb, 2005 12:00am

OECD sees weak growth in leading economies

PARIS, Feb 11: The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) said on Friday that its composite leading indicator rose in December from the previous month but forecast weak growth in the period ahead.

The CLI edged up to 103.9 in December from a revised 103.7 in November. In November, the figure had previously been given as 103.4. The CLI summarises information contained in a number of key short-term indicators known to be linked to gross domestic product (GDP) and provides early signals of turning points between expansions and slowdowns in economic activity.

An OECD statement said analysis of the data pointed to weak growth overall in advanced economies in the coming months. "Weak expansion lies ahead in the OECD area according to the latest composite leading indicators," the organization said.

While the data suggested improved economic activity in the United States and Germany, it pointed toward less robust performances in other Group of Seven economies, particularly in Britain, Canada, France and Italy.

Economic turning points are underscored by a six-month rate of change in the indicator, which compares the current month's CLI figure with the average of the previous 12 months.

In December, the six-month rate of change showed an annualized increase of 1.6 per cent, compared with 1.5 per cent in November. The six-month rate has been on an upward trend for the past two months following declines during the previous nine months.

For the United States, the CLI rose to 102.6 in December from 102.2 in November, and the six-month rate of change rose for the second month running after 10 months of declines.

The German indicator rose to 108.7 from 108.4. But the French CLI eased to 106.7 from 106.9 and the indicator for Italy dropped to 97.8 from 98.4. The six-month rate of change for both countries remained on a downward trend. The British indicator fell to 100.8 from 101.3, while Japan's was unchanged at 98.8. -AFP

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