INDIA has started building three more small dams on the Indus River – the lifeline of Pakistan’s agriculture – and according to reports, substantial excavation and concreting work has already been completed.
These include 45MW “Nimoo Bazgo” project at village Alchi, 70Km from Leh, 130MW “Dumkhar” project located 128km on Leh-Khalsi Batalik road and “Chutak” on River Suru – a major tributary of the Indus River – in Kargil district.
The latest reports suggest that powerhouse of Nimoo Bazgo project is complete and 48 per cent concreting of 57-metre dam up to crest level has also been completed. The Chutak project is scheduled to be completed as early as 2011.
Though these dams also pose a threat of flash floods in Northern Area because of the ratio of Indian dam failures in such regions – so far, nine of them have collapsed – but the bigger question i.e. when India is constructing dams on every possible site, why Pakistan policy makers are silent over the issue?
Pakistan’s water statistics are worsening by the day: its per capita availability would drop to a dangerous 800 metres by 2020. It regularly faces up to 25 per cent water shortage even if both dams are filled and it rains normal during winter. The Tarbella Dam, which used to serve the nation right up to mid-June, when next filling starts, now hits the dead level by February-end or early March. Silt has eaten up 28 per cent capacity of both dams and eats more every year. Subsoil aquifer has dropped even to 300 to 400 feet in the cities due to heavy pumping.
Though the Indians are allowed to build dams on run of the river water on three western rivers given to Pakistan under the Indus Basin Water Treaty, and so is Pakistan. When one party ro the treaty is exploring each and every niche of water storage, the other’s insensitive attitude is totally incomprehensible.
Unable or unwilling to harness their own water resources, at least for the time being, the water planners are now hoping against the hope that India would operate these dams as per treaty provision and would not affect water supplies to Pakistan. But history, unfortunately, is not on their side. Except for Salal Dam, where both sides agreed on the operation criteria, every other water project – its design and filling criteria – has created frictions between the two countries.
Experts are still hopeful that construction of these dams would not affect water supplies for agriculture because of regulatory capacity of Diamer-Bhasha and Tarbella Dams – whenever the Indians release water, it could be stored in both dams and used as per routine. But they do agree that India could hold water for many weeks if it rigs filling operation and uses free board area for water storage.
Though the Indians had informed Pakistani side about the construction of these dams and also shared design, but the construction work is going on despite Pakistani objections to their design. The Indians have still neither responded to design objections nor invited any Pakistani officials to the dam sites.
Water planners need to realise that 93 per cent of its water is used for agriculture and timing of water availability is as important as its quantity. They should not see these dams in isolation and claim that even if the Indians hold water for a few weeks, it would ultimately flow into Pakistani dams. India has already constructed and operationalised the Baglihar dam on Chenab River and is in process of building Uri-1, Uri-2 projects on it. It also plans to construct 10-20 more dams on Chenab alone. On the Jhelum River, India is constructing the Kishanganga Hydropower project.
If India, at any point of time, stops water for few weeks in all these dams, where would Pakistan agriculture stand? If almost 50 per cent drop in flow of river Chenab due to Baglihar dam and its effects on rice crop is something to go by, what would happen to river flows for Pakistan if Indian constructs 22 more dams on the same river and holds some water at each site for a few weeks.
Pakistan’s reactive approach to every new dam and then trying to mitigate its effects on this side of border by isolating that particular project has landed the country in water morass. The Indians had indicated construction of these dams on the Indus River in their eight five-year plan. They have also indicated all other projects that they would construct in future. Pakistan should have with it almost the entire picture of what could happen to its water availability and agriculture when all these dams are constructed.
While opposing Indian moves to construct dams on their own terms, Pakistan also needs to harness its own resources alongside. The Indians, as upper riparian, will always have some kind of advantage for rigging water flows.
The effects of their advantage and margin could only be lessened by timely planning of our own projects. Pakistan has many identified sites on Indus River that include Skardu Dam (2maf), Diamer-Bhasha Dam (gross 8.1maf), Akhori dam (gross 7.6maf) and Kalabagh Dam (gross 7.9). But successive governments have refused to move on any one of them, except for Diamer-Bhasha, which was taken up only three years ago and its contract may be awarded this year. All other projects may not see the light of the day if current impervious attitude of successive governments continues.