The twin cities of Islamabad and Rawalpindi were hit by a severe thunder and hail storm on September 5, bringing down the temperatures.

Simultaneously the power load dropped. It immediately led various DISCOs to reduce shedding to only 1000 MW from which too was lifted after a similar storm hit Lahore and environs on the same evening.

The time period starting from 1900 hours till 2400 hours (midnight) each day had been considered to see a power deficit of up-to 4278 MW (due to hot and sultry disposition a day earlier, but the requirement for the same disappeared with spare capacity of about 1000 MW on PEPCO hands against the capability of about 13,700 MW. Was it so because the average country temperature dropped from the mid-day high of 34°C to only 26°C in the night?

What happened that led to a reduction in the load by about 5000 MW through drop of 8°C in the ambient. A little research took us to the fact that rain and thunder-storm in Rawalpindi/Islamabad areas in the late morning and similar meteorological activity in Lahore and environs firstly stopped agricultural tube-well loads from being connected to the grid supply.

Similarly, some industrial supply which needed the outdoors to complete, also stopped. Some commercial activity too was seen to have reduced. Computing on the basis of the actual statistics on the record, the above stagnation was meagre. A few areas may have been deprived of power supply due to broken lines etc. As such cut-off areas could not add up to more than 100 — 200 MW loads. The reason for the other down-turn or reduction in demand by 4300 MW or so, remained unexplained.

Insight revealed that air conditioning use by domestic and commercial customers drastically came down due to reduction in the mercury by 8°C. The study showed that more than 90 per cent air conditioners were now not being used by people. As no other reason cropped-up, the addition of ACs to the system during the last three years was considered.

It was found that half a million ACs — mainly of the split version was sold and added to the power system during fiscal 2005-06. Thereafter, another 7,50,000 pieces of such equipment was added to the system during the next financial year viz. 2006-07.

Importers and manufacturers of air conditioners had planned to sell upwards of a million ACs during 2007-08, but due to the on-going power crises they could only purvey 7,50,000 such appliances. A market survey revealed that people wanting to add three ACs during 2008 would now buy two and spend the rest of the money on procurement of a generator or a UPS.

The sale figures for the three years viz. 2005-08 add to a phenomenal two million pieces or an addition of 4000 MW of load or at least a usage effect equalling 800 MW at 20 per cent diversely factor. It was estimated that four million ACs of both the window and the split versions (in addition to package and centrally air conditioned buildings) were added between 2000-08 or a load of 1600 MW (with due diversity) to the system.

One can safely assume that a large number of such contraptions would be hooked up to the system in addition to the equipment bought during 2000-2008. And if we quantify such use, we safely come up with the figure of about 4000 MW as specifically AC load on the system.

This 4000 MW of AC load simply vanished from the system demand after the mercury dropped by 7-8°C on late September 5. The system remained so till September 08 where-after it has slowly built up at a rate of 800-900 MW a day.

Energy labelling is unheard of and Pakistan remains a dumping ground for gas guzzling and inefficient electrical equipment. The present requirement of cooling is being managed by double the required load viz. only 2000 MW. As such, besides being unduly loaded by a non-productive AC load of 4000 MW, the power system has also to arrange for expensive peaking generation without much returns. Pakistan cannot afford such extravagant usage of ACs and that all such usages have to necessarily result in great increase in utility revenues. We must use ACs most frugally, and these have to be energy labelled with only efficient models allowed to be imported and manufactured locally.

The users must feel morally bound to pay for such usage and that, on call, we must learn to curtail use of ACs in times of power crunch. The utilities must introduce very stringent peak hour tariffs and also load the rates for luxurious usage of power. Customers may seek permission to add such appliances to their works.

The writer is the director-general (Energy Management & Conservation) Pepco.