WASHINGTON, Aug 13: In a rare, on-the-record briefing, a senior terrorism analyst for the US government has claimed that Al Qaeda is exploiting recent political turmoil in Pakistan to strengthen its foothold along the country’s border with Afghanistan.

In a speech at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, Ted Gistaro, the US national intelligence officer for trans-national threats, also warned of a heightened risk of attack during the upcoming US election season.

“Al Qaeda remains the most serious terrorist threat to the United States,” he said. “As the election nears, we expect to see an uptick in threat reporting — of varying credibility — regarding possible attacks.”

His speech, however, focussed on the situation along the Afghan border, claiming that while Al Qaeda took advantage of a 2006 ceasefire to establish itself in Fata, the group continued to grow after the ceasefire as well.

Mr Gistaro noted that in the past several days, militants had forced Pakistani troops to beat a hasty retreat from a Taliban stronghold in Fata. Pakistani forces’ effort to regain its strategic supremacy in Bajaur had not been very successful either.

He also claimed that since early 2006, Pakistani militant groups had increased their collaboration with Al Qaeda.

Mr Gistaro — the principal author of the “National Intelligence Estimate”, which is sent to the US president as an official document — said that Al Qaeda was also getting support from other ethnic and religious groups in its war against the United States.

These include ethnic Pashtun groups native to Fata and groups from eastern Pakistan that focussed on occupied Kashmir before Al Qaeda resurgence.

He said that while a major focus of these groups was conducting attacks against the US-led coalition forces in Afghanistan, they also provided safe haven to Al Qaeda fighters and collaborated on attacks inside Pakistan.

Mr Gistaro’s presentation focussed on the four following points:

First, Al Qaeda has strengthened its safe haven in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas by deepening its alliances with Pakistani militants and pushing many elements of Pakistani government authority from the area. It now has many of the operational and organisational advantages it once enjoyed across the border in Afghanistan, albeit on a smaller and less secure scale.

Second, despite some significant losses, Al Qaeda has replenished its bench of skilled mid-level lieutenants capable of directing its global operations. These losses collectively represent the most serious blow to Al Qaeda’s leadership since 2005.

While it sometimes can take several months to replace these individuals, Al Qaeda has developed succession plans, can reshuffle leadership responsibilities, and promote younger commanders with years of battlefield experience to senior positions. The leaders’ collocation in the Fata allows them to manage the organisation collaboratively, helping facilitate the replacement of key figures.

Third, Osama bin Laden and his deputy Ayman Al Zawahiri continue to maintain Al Qaeda’s unity and its focus on their strategic vision and operational priorities, although security concerns likely preclude them from running the organisation day-to-day. Bin Laden remains Al Qaeda’s authoritative source for strategic and tactical guidance. Subordinates continue to see him as the group’s most inspirational force.

Fourth, Al Qaeda is identifying, training, and positioning operatives for attacks in the West, likely including in the United States. These operatives include North American and European citizens and legal residents with passports that allow them to travel to the United States without a US visa.