ISLAMABAD, Feb 13: Depressing assessments of the post-election scene have failed to snuff out hopes that things will get better and Pakistan can turn the corner to become a stable, prosperous country, according to an opinion poll conducted by GlobeScan for BBC Urdu.
According to the survey, half of the respondents were hopeful that things would improve over the next six months. Sixteen per cent said they were “very optimistic” while 35 per cent were “somewhat optimistic” that a change for the better would come about sooner than later.
Sindh was the least hopeful (38 per cent) of a positive change while Balochistan was the most optimistic (76 per cent).
Punjab and the NWFP (both with 53 per cent optimists) were in unison with the national average.
On the other hand, 39 per cent sounded pessimistic -- 19 per cent saying they were “very pessimistic” and 20 per cent “somewhat pessimistic”.
The poll of a nationally representative sample of 1,476 Pakistanis aged above 18 was conducted by Gallup Pakistan, carrying out interviews on Jan 27 and 28.
Most of those polled also favoured the reinstatement of deposed chief justice Iftikhar Mohammad Chaudhry.
Almost two out of three respondents (63 per cent) agreed with a suggestion that the “National Assembly should seek to reinstate Iftikhar Chaudhry as chief justice of the Supreme Court” after the general election. Nineteen per cent said the assembly should not seek Justice Chaudhry’s reinstatement.
According to the findings of the survey, which is to be released on Thursday, 64 per cent of Pakistanis are confident that Pakistan could become a stable country if President Pervez Musharraf resigns in the immediate future.
In contrast, one in four (25 per cent) respondents believes that security would get “worse” if President Musharraf tendered resignation.
Twenty-nine 29 per cent of the respondents regarded Pervez Musharraf’s re-election as “valid”, while around half (49 per cent) said it was “invalid”. Twenty-two per did not give an answer.
The belief that President Musharraf’s resignation would help stabilise the country was held by majorities in all provinces. However, the majority was not as strong in Sindh as in the rest of the country.
BENAZIR’S ASSASSINATION: According to the poll, which was conducted before the release last week of the Scotland Yard report largely corroborating the government’s account of PPP chairperson Benazir Bhutto’s assassination, the largest number of respondents -- 39 per cent -- believed that “Pakistan’s security agencies or people linked to them” were responsible for her killing. As many as 24 per cent said that “some other party” was responsible. While 21 per cent said they did not know, only 16 per cent bought the government’s contention that Taliban leader Baitullah Mehsud and his Al Qaeda-linked network carried out the assassination.
The belief that security agencies or those close to them plotted to kill Ms Bhutto was strongest in the NWFP (48 per cent), followed by Sindh (46 per cent). In Balochistan, 70 per cent thought otherwise.
‘FREE AND FAIR’ POLLS: The respondents were almost evenly split about the fairness of the Feb 18 election.
As many as 44 per cent said they trusted the government to hold “free and fair” elections -- 11 per cent saying they were “very” confident while 33 per were “somewhat” confident.
A whopping 46 per cent said they were certain the elections would not be fair -- 27 per cent “not very confident” and 19 per cent “not at all confident”.
GlobeScan President Doug Miller, who worked at the University of Maryland to develop and analyse the opinion poll, said: “While many western governments have supported President Musharraf in the belief that he offers the only hope of a stable Pakistan, the average citizen disagrees with this assessment.”