ISLAMABAD, Oct 18: Wheat shortage is feared next year as experts anticipate up to 25 per cent less water availability between October 1 and April 30 during Rabi season.

Gram, lentil, tobacco, barley and mustard, other Rabi crops, may also be affected by water shortage.

Sources told Dawn on Thursday that the Federal Committee on Agriculture (FCA) was expected to finalise next year’s crop estimates on October 24. It would, however, find it difficult to fix for next year higher wheat production target than official claims of 23.5 million tonnes output this year.

The sources said the Indus River System Authority (Irsa) had yet to officially communicate estimates of water shortage to the FCA.

The Irsa advisory committee is expected to meet early next week to approve water estimates to enable the FCA to finalise crop estimates.

Irsa’s technical committee, in its October 8 meeting, had deliberated upon the availability estimates for Rabi and was informed by the Punjab government that water shortage would be about 25 per cent.

Other stakeholders including Irsa, the Water and Power Development Authority and other provinces are also apprehending water shortage in the range of 20-25 per cent on the basis of historical data on rains and river flows.

“Last year, we carried forward wheat stocks of half a million tonnes and were blessed with about a million tonnes higher than targeted production, but we faced one of the worst flour crises in our history.

The current season has already begun on October 1 with carried forward wheat shortage and anticipated 25 per cent less water availability,” said an official who claimed that the government was facing difficulties in finalising next year’s crop estimates.

The sources said Kharif crops in Sindh and Punjab had either been already harvested or matured, reducing their indents to about 45,000 cusecs and 30,000 cusecs of water, respectively.

Sindh would now start sowing in the first week of November, followed by Punjab in mid-November and hence current releases to the provinces were taking place smoothly and without any dispute, they added.