PAKISTAN has been witnessing varying population growth trends, most significant being age longevity achieved through improved nutrition, medical care and a bit of modernisation which not only reduced death rates but brought about some respite in the rapid increase in birth rates. The demographic change has also impacted economy, social set-up, gender-related outlook and environment.

Despite the efforts to remove the imbalance between the population and the economic growth rates, a high population growth rate persists, particularly relating to child bearing age segment. The disparity is likely to persist with regard to population and economic growth rate, even in foreseeable future.

In a span of 54 years, the population has increased from 34 million (in 1951) to 155 million approximately by 2005 and despite concerted efforts to reduce birth rate-- which has gone down from 45/1000 (in 1965) to 30.4/1000 of population in 2005. The growth rate continues to stager around 2.5 per cent for the last five years. This is the outcome of a sharp decline in death rates, which in 1965 was as high as 18/1000 and by 2005; was slashed down to 8.45 per one thousand persons, thus enhancing average life expectancy to 66years.

On the other hand, around 30 per cent of the female population falls under the category of reproductive age group and fertility rate remains constant at 4.14 children for last one decade. Hence the country continues to experience high percentage of dependant population, encompassing age groups of 0 – 14 years and 60 years and above. According to 1998 census, 39.60 of total population is of less than 14 years, whereas census results are silent about age group of 60 and above. However according to 1981 statistics percentage of elderly persons in total population was seven per cent with an average life expectancy figure of 57.

Now in a scenario of improved life expectancy, it is likely to be around 10 per cent.

People within the age group of 15- 60 years are 53.40 per cent of the total population, whereas according to statistics available from World Bank total labour force deployed both in formal and informal sector is only 47 per cent of the total population, which includes child labour and overseas workers.

Presence of high ratio of working age group in total population pre-supposes a status of ‘more workers per dependant’ and substantial increase in GDP and per capita income growth rate, but despite having constant high ratio of workforce potential (53.40), level of employment and GDP growth rate does not match population growth rate because of dearth of necessary infrastructure in all sectors of economy, total neglect towards development of human capital, lack of transparency and good governance at all tiers of the government.

Hence the dependant segment of population and unemployed youth continue to put pressure on resources, diluting capital - labour ratio and creating demand--supply imbalances in all the sectors of economy.

According to global experience, improved life expectancy results in changing life cycle behaviour. Nations experiencing age longevity are found to have higher human capital development growth rate, high propensity to save, delayed retirements boosting financial capital development, but in case of Pakistan due to least investments for development of social sector directly impacting growth of human capital/resources-- lowest even among South Asian countries — as is depicted from UNDP latest report, ranking Pakistan 144th among 173 nations surveyed.

Of the total labour force, 42 per cent deployed in agriculture sector is totally unaware of the latest farming technology; hence yield of crops per acre continues to be very low. Majority of industrial labour is comprised of unskilled or semi-skilled workers. As such, the performance of manufacturing sector remains below the mark for want of usage of new technologies and export remains more or less stagnant.

In fact, country needs to capitalise on age group 5-16 by giving them quality education, both general and technical, in order to equip them to meet demands of ever-changing labour market following the onslaught of new technologies. At the same time this particular segment of population needs to be provided proper healthcare facilities to produce an energetic workforce, leading to a significant increase in working to dependant population ratio.

Demographic change brought about with regard to substantial increase in number of technically well-equipped and energetic workforce can only be beneficial if congenial and competitive working environment exist in all sectors of the economy. Remuneration, particularly for highly skilled professional jobs, needs to be performance-related. This would automatically boost up performance of work force in all types of industries.

In recent years, an abrupt surge has been noted in percentage of female workforce deployed in various sectors. This is due to increasing female literates, which is the outcome of gender sensitised policies of the government giving indiscriminate access to women to all disciplines of higher education, professions and lines of businesses. Hence the ratio of women workforce has risen to 24 per cent in recent years. Due to sizable increase of females in specialised professions, their presence is being felt among overseas workers also.

Similarly, due to promotion of secondary and higher education among rural females through facilities of residential hostel accommodation provided at low cost within the reach of colleges and universities and work places in all the provinces has prompted women to take white collar jobs in urban areas. Hence females’ migration to cities is an added dimension to problems of rapid urbanisation. This has no doubt empowered women economically, but at the same time has added to dearth of skilled population in rural areas, needed for sustained growth of the rural economy.

Our inability to match socio-economic development initiatives to fast increasing population has generated emigration surge right from the early 80s due to lack of employment opportunities both in white collar and lesser skill needed jobs. This, apart from adding to the foreign exchange reserves has resulted in raising living standards of immigrant families left behind and enhanced affordability of such families to provide quality education to children and better healthcare for members of the family.

However, in recent years migrants’ entry in high wage economies has greatly slackened due to economic activity reaching saturation point in these countries and to their fast changing political outlook regarding developing countries in general and developing Islamic economies in particular. Although WTO regime advocates free flow of skilled manpower between developed and developing countries, highly skilled manpower from Pakistan and other low income developing economies face discrimination even in the fields such as IT, banking and other specialised fields. Similarly, outsourcing contracts relating to IT services, the country is being overlooked against India and Singapore etc.

The urban-rural migration trend needs to be curbed. At least highly skilled persons in all professional fields belonging to rural areas need to be motivated to deliver their services in rural areas so as to boost up the economy. Agriculture universities operating in rural areas must be fully equipped for carrying on research for improving qualities seeds, fertilisers and overall cultivation techniques. In this regard liberal financial assistance must be provided to personnel involved in research work so as arrest brain drain from rural areas.

Rapidly increasing population in mega cities has caused environmental problems also. Industrial waste, poor sanitary conditions, pollution created by smoke emitting vehicles and traffic noise apart from causing health hazards entailing higher spending on healthcare-- both at national and family level --have an adverse impact on climatic conditions, particularly enhancing frequency of drought cycle. As such rural-urban as well as cross border migrations are needed to be checked effectively.

Population problems in the wake of increasing longevity have given another dimension to population adversities. As such, the country is faced with rapidly growing elderly population, which in the face lower growth of economic activity relative to population growth rate has worsened the ratio of working population to the dependants.

According to UN report elderly(60 years and above) population of South Asian countries including Pakistan, at present rate of improvement in life expectancy is likely to increase by 15 per cent by year 2030. This size of elderly population already poses as a challenge for country like Pakistan. With 75 per cent of population earning less than $2 per day, a person reaching retiring age and after meeting all family obligations like marriages of siblings and their higher educations etc is left with little from pension fund to meet even minimum necessities of life.

In the recent past, a survey conducted by statistics Department of Sindh University on random basis, revealed that only 4.5 per cen of senior citizens surveyed were found employed in private sector entities at a meagre salary and in one way or other they were dependant on earning members of their families. Right from the day country gained independence, the aging population was never taken as an issue. Now when it has emerged as a challenge, adequate programmes and policies need to be formulated to cater to specific health needs of elderly people.