IN the ongoing US-Iran confrontation, a negotiated exit seems unlikely any time soon given the geopolitical situation. Israel, which largely controls American policies on the Middle East, is the stumbling block to a permanent end to war. Nuclear en-richment issue is always purported to be a sticking point, but this is not the case in reality. It is a pretext by the United States to derail the negotiations and walk away from a deal signalling wide differences.

The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) signed in 2015 provided enough safeguards to ensure Iran did not have nuclear weapons. The enrichment was restricted to just 3.67 per cent.

Adequate monitoring mechanism was put in place, including periodic inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and other international bodies, to ensure Iran abided by the terms of the agreement. It was a tightly negotiated document that took more than five years to formalise. The JCPOA un-locked the sanctions on Iran that irked Israel.

An Iran free of sanctions is unacceptable to Israel. Under its pressure, the agreement was abandoned by Donald Trump during his first term. The reason is simple. Should primary and secondary sanctions imposed by the US on Iran get lifted following a permanent peace deal, Iran with its 93 million population, is likely to emerge within few years as a dominant economic and political power in the region, eclipsing both Saudi Arabia and Israel.

Iran’s rise will be inconsistent with Benjamin Netanyahu’s dream of greater Israel. Unless there is a regime change in Washington and Israel is effectively kept at bay, chances of resolution to the ongoing destructive conflict remain truly slim.

Arif Majeed
Karachi

Published in Dawn, June 3rd, 2026