The Global Report on Food Crises 2026 was released on 24 April 2026 by the Global Network Against Food Crises in collaboration with UN agencies, including the World Food Programme and the Food and Agriculture Organisation. The report reveals that in terms of the absolute number of people facing acute food insecurity, Pakistan ranks eighth, with around 11 million affected people, while Nigeria tops the list with 30.6m.
However, the report does not present a fully comparable picture across countries because the proportion of the population analysed varies significantly from one country to another. For instance, in Pakistan, the assessment covered only 21 per cent of the total population — around 50.8m people from 68 rural districts — whereas in Nigeria, nearly 89pc of the population was included. Had a similarly large proportion of Pakistan’s population been assessed, there is a strong possibility that the country would have ranked much higher.
Notably, in the 2025 Global Hunger Index 2025, Pakistan ranked 106th out of 123 countries and was placed in the “serious” hunger category. Beyond these statistical comparisons, one fact remains undeniable: Pakistan’s food security situation is highly fragile and may deteriorate further in the future due to a combination of longstanding structural weaknesses and emerging domestic and international pressures.
The war in Iran has moved beyond a geopolitical conflict and is now shaking the very foundations of the global food and agriculture system. The conflict has disrupted fertiliser supplies, which are likely to reduce crop yields in many countries. At the same time, higher fuel prices have increased farm production costs and freight and transportation expenses. Together, these developments are expected to tighten global food supplies and push food prices upward — and Pakistan is unlikely to remain immune to these shocks.
Pakistan’s agriculture sector possesses sufficient potential to feed the country’s population with its existing resources; the core problem lies in misplaced priorities
Compounding these external pressures, Pakistan’s own wheat production — the country’s major staple crop — has declined considerably in the recent harvest due to unfavourable weather conditions. Although estimates vary, a shortfall of around 2-4m tonnes is expected, which may necessitate imports.
The situation is particularly alarming as Pakistan’s economy is already under pressure from weak exports and therefore relies heavily on workers’ remittances to support its external account. However, the war in Iran and the widespread uncertainty across the Gulf region could disrupt these inflows. In such circumstances, large-scale wheat imports would strain the country’s already fragile foreign exchange reserves.
Meanwhile, inflationary pressures within the country are also intensifying due to rising fuel prices and high government taxes, which are eroding the purchasing power of low-income households already struggling with the rising cost of living.
At the same time, Pakistan’s exceptionally high population growth rate of 2.55pc is further intensifying the challenge. In contrast, the country’s agricultural growth remains modest and increasingly vulnerable to multiple pressures, including shrinking farm sizes, declining river flows, erratic rainfalls and rising temperatures, recurrent floods, and escalating prices of agricultural inputs.
Alongside declining access to affordable food, malnutrition is emerging as another major crisis. Around 40pc of children under the age of five are stunted, with prevalence rates even higher in rural areas. In the past, poor rural households had access to milk, butter, or at least lassi — the liquid left after butter extraction — which was abundantly available for free in village homes.
Today, however, worsening economic pressures are forcing the majority of families to sell milk and eggs merely to meet daily household expenses or to pay exorbitant electricity bills, often at the cost of their own nutritional needs.
At the same time, livestock rearing for milk and meat has become increasingly expensive due to rising fodder costs. Consequently, a large segment of the population now relies primarily on wheat and rice merely to meet basic caloric needs, resulting in increasingly imbalanced diets and rising malnutrition.
Given these circumstances, the immediate challenge is to ensure the availability of wheat at affordable prices in order to avert a repeat of the 2023 crisis, when nearly a dozen people died while waiting in queues for subsidised flour.
In this context, instead of taking heavy-handed administrative measures to control wheat supply, the government may consider allowing flour mills to blend up to 10pc maize with wheat flour during the current year.
Pakistan already exports maize, and this season a larger crop is expected due to an 8.9pc increase in maize cultivated area in Punjab alone, along with comparatively favourable crop conditions. Such a policy could help absorb a domestic maize surplus of around 1.5-2m tonnes. However, Pakistan lacks a formal composite flour policy, despite the growing need for one.
Beyond doubt, Pakistan’s agriculture sector possesses sufficient potential to feed the country’s population with its existing land and water resources. The core problem lies in misplaced priorities, flawed policies, weak planning, poor management, high food loss and waste, and distorted market incentives.
Consequently, farmers are often forced to rotavate (destroy) mature standing crops or divert them to livestock feed due to market failures. This year, potatoes, cabbage, and melons have become stark examples of this recurring issue while shortages of several other crops persist simultaneously.
To sum it up, one point must be clearly understood: prevailing government interventions mainly focused on dishing out subsidised tractors, machinery, solar tubewells, and loans may decrease the production cost for a small segment of farmers, but cannot develop the country’s agriculture sector. It requires a shift towards comprehensive crop planning, productivity-driven policies, and an improved agricultural marketing system that can ensure the right prices for farmers. Otherwise, Pakistan risks moving from periodic food stress to chronic food insecurity.
Khalid Wattoo is a development professional and a farmer, and Dr Waqar Ahmad is a former associate professor at the University of Agriculture, Faisalabad.
Published in Dawn, The Business and Finance Weekly, May 18th, 2026